Thread by @Trinhnomics

Good morning 🌞.
Investors are repricing the prospect of a no deal 🙅🏻‍♀️ w/ US markets dropping. If Trump not bluffing (assumption not fact), then the outcome binary: a) Liu He assures the US that won’t backtrack & they have a deal & b) China walks & we all deal w/ the consequences.

Big day today - China April trade data out soon & expectations are (USD):

Exports +3% YoY from 14.2%
Imports -2.1% from upwardly revised -4.8% for March

Btw, Philippines March exports contracted & average ASEAN exports WORSENED in March 🤢

Let's not forget that we get April CPI tomorrow as well and expectations are for it to rise to 2.5% YoY from 2.3% on food prices (think 🐷🐖🐽📈📈📈 & higher in H2).

So plenty to be cautious this week.

In USD: Exports -2.7% YoY from 14.2%; Imports 4% YoY from -4.8%;

Meaning, stabilization but frankly nothing to brag home about. W/ Q2 exports downward & trade-war escalation on-going, can't be good news for private investment.

Waiting for details. Meanwhile, here is a chart of USD %YoY exports smoothed by taking a 3-month average 👇🏻

China trade surplus in USD getting narrower 👇🏻👇🏻 (2019 data only has up to April)

Exports by destination (biggest is the US at 16.2% of total):

USA -13.1% YoY
Japan -16.3%
South Korea -7.6%
India -9.1%
South Africa -0.9%
Australia -13.6%
EU +6.5%
UK +8.9%
Germany +6.7%
France 2.1%
Australia -13.6%

Imports - China seems to be buying a lot of from commodity exporters in April (infra anyone) but the year-to-date picture still bad:

USA -25.7%
France -16.6%
Korea -2.4%
Taiwan -6.8%
Japan +1.4%
ASEAN +10.4%
EU +4.4%
Germany +3.2%
Australia +18%
Brazil +20.4%
South Africa +28.8

By commodities below ytd in value however so you don't see April effect. So far not so great 👇🏻:

Fuel oil +13.6%
Natural gas +39.7%

Soybeans -7.6%
Steel products -15.5%
Copper -14.8%
Coal -6.5%

Commodity by volumes (ytd %YoY) 👇🏻:

Coal +1.7%
Natural gas 16.4%
Copper ore & concentrate +16.7%
Crude oil 8.9%
Refined oil +8.8%

Iron ore -3.7%
Steel products -13.4%
Soybeans -7.9%
Copper -5.3%