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A look at the d'Hondt voting system, and how the Brexit party more winning votes could be good for pro-Remain parties.
You'd think we need to stop Nigel Farage's party at all costs. But the way D'Hondt works to distribute MEPs in a region, getting a few more votes doesn't help.
You'd think we need to stop Nigel Farage's party at all costs. But the way D'Hondt works to distribute MEPs in a region, getting a few more votes doesn't help.
Fictional example (assumes 3 parties are in the race for MEP seats to keep it simple). 2 MEPs up for grabs in the region.
In the first scenario, the Brexit Party tops the region with 120,000 votes and gets an MEP. The Tories have 2nd largest vote and get the other.
In the first scenario, the Brexit Party tops the region with 120,000 votes and gets an MEP. The Tories have 2nd largest vote and get the other.
In the second scenario, the Brexit Party grabs votes away from the Tories (same total vote). So they're top by an even wider margin. But that doesn't really matter that much. Look at what happens to the vote. Suddenly, the LibDems are ahead of the Tories and grab the second MEP.
So the key to success in the European elections is to not obsess about what the pro-Brexit parties are doing (that can't be helped) but hope they're eating each other enough to leave MEPs for pro-Remain parties.
Instead, focus on maximising the vote for the pro-Remain party that's in the best possible position to win an MEP. Because of the way d'Hondt halves the value of the vote after the 1st MEP, it will be incredibly hard for the LibDems, Greens, etc. to get 2 MEPs in a region.
So aim should be to get the best-placed party solidly over the minimum vote threshold to grab an MEP. And if they're in really good shape, to get the second-best-placed party over the threshold too. And if they're well positioned, to get the third-best-placed party over it too.
Therefore if the LibDems are polling top for an area, they'll be the best party to vote for. But if the second-placed pro-Remain party's also in with a shout, they could be a good alternative. Same rule applies if it the Greens were to be in pole position in a different area.
Some areas have small numbers of MEPs up for grabs, and there will realistically only be 1 (or 0) MEP going to a pro-Remain party. So for those areas, we should gang up to support the opinion poll leader.
Other areas have larger number of MEPs on offer, and there's realistically a chance that 2 or even 3 pro-Remain parties might each pick up their 1 MEP that's likely to be the ceiling for their success. So the vote should be spread tactically.
Here's a *preliminary* analysis of where strategic votes could best be deployed. It's based on recent (late April 2019) polling overlaid on the 2014 voting numbers. Of course things will change between now and polling day, but it gives an idea at least.
