Thread by @scianalysis

In light of recently released report regarding effects of ride-hailing (e.g. Lyft, Uber) on congestion, I wanted to highlight some work by @ITS_UCDavis scholars on the subject and offer a couple of perspectives. (This great infographic came out of ITS research)
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First, the study (available here: advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/5/ea…) reinforces the results of multiple other researchers in this field, including my @ITS_UCDavis colleague Dr. Caroline Rodier (available here in brief form, w/ links to full report: escholarship.org/uc/item/4vz524…) 2/

It's pretty clear that the ubiquitous presence of ride-hailing services has increased congestion and the associated fuel consumption and pollutant emissions. This is pretty clearly, in the technical parlance, bad. 3/

This is not the end of the story however. Ride-hailing services have also pretty clearly increased access to cost-effective mobility for many. People wouldn't be riding them if there wasn't value to be gained. 4/

The question isn't so much whether ride-hailing is good or bad but how to set policy to maximize the good aspects and minimize the bad ones. We've got a lot of that research going on as well. Sharing the vehicles, through pooled rides is one obvious answer. 5/

Though that will probably require some tweaks to the pricing or incentive structure to accomplish. When rides are fairly cheap, it's hard to offer a pooled-ride discount enough to compensate people for a reasonable value of their time. 6/

In the U.S., pooling also probably requires some relaxation of some social norms regarding discomfort in shared space, as well as better safety provisions for passengers who feel vulnerable. 7/

Vehicle design may (should?) shift from a driver-centric to a passenger-centric model. Sharing a ride may be a less onerous prospect if your seat looked less bench-like, and more like first-class airline seating: adjustable, partially-isolated, with personal infotainment. 8/

Another key: Integrating ride-hailing and transit. Right now, some ride-hailing use replaces transit, though specifically what and where is not fully established. Reading between the lines a bit, it looks like ride-hailing is mostly competing/displacing buses 9/

... and may support rail, as a first/last mile option. This makes intuitive sense. Transit buses are generally slower than cars for a given trip (except in very dense urban areas), and typically less comfortable. A point-to-point ride which omits multiple stops is attractive 10/

Less-dense urban/suburban areas have been one of the most difficult areas to serve with buses. Could TNC serve this demand better and cheaper? There's a case to be made that the answer is yes, outside of rush hour at least, as long as we ensure equitable access to all 11/

Some cities are already experimenting with TNCs as a complement to bus service, offering subsidies to users, or contracts to TNCs for this purpose. No clear data on whether it's successful or not. 12/

The elephant in the room, however, is labor, which some researchers are starting to evaluate. There are legitimate questions about the nature of the relationship between ride-hailing services like Lyft and Uber and their drivers, at present. 13/

It's not really a secret that driverless ride-hailing is a goal of not only existing ride-hailing companies, but a bunch of other well-financed technology and automotive companies. So, the question is, does the system change when there's no driver in the vehicle? 14/

Also: Does the system change when people no longer own their own vehicles, but treat mobility as a service? Research is only starting here and it's hard to unpick the early results from current attitudes about transportation (which will surely change) 15/

Here, my knowledge ends and I'll pass on speculating for the moment (happy to do so in a less-public forum) but I will say, it's clear the labor impacts will be substantial and quite possibly inevitable. Fighting to preserve the status quo may not be possible. 16/

Ultimately, it's important that policy makers consider ride-hailing with full information, both the good and the bad. Like everything else in transportation/climate/energy studies, it's not simple. I'm happy to see so many researchers giving this topic ample attention. 17/17