Thread by @lewis_goodall

THREAD: On the rise of the Brexit Party and what it means for Brexit and British politics.

That’s it, there are no more Brexit Party rallies planned before polling day. I’ve been to half a dozen of them across the country, from the very first week to the end.

Firstly whatever your political persuasion, you have to hand it to Farage and to his team: they have dominated this election campaign. There are a few reasons for that. Firstly their social media operation has been stellar, perhaps the best ever seen in British politics.

Add to this their branding: Farage’s people have taken very old commodities (Farage and Widdecombe et al) and pulled off the trick, through branding, strategy and nifty social media of making it seem something brand new. No mean feat.

Secondly strategy: they realised these elections would be important and planned accordingly. This was being conceived in November. They realised what a psychological impact they could have on the Tory Party and Brexit. Incredibly, there was no equivalent on the remain side.

Some have suggested Farage is simply pulling off the same trick as 2014, just taken his vote share from that year and repeating it. There is some truth in that but his ability to take that vote wholesale (admittedly with the help of some self destruction from UKIP)...

...has been impressive. At the start of the campaign, many assumed UKIP’s 2014 vote share would be split between rumpUKIP and Farage. No-one thinks that now. Ironically it vindicates one of the great criticisms of UKIP- that it was a one man band. He made it, he’s destroyed it.

In any case, it looks v likely Farage will exceed 27% this time. Even if he doesn’t do so by much- it doesn’t matter, he’s already won. He has used these elections not only to entrench the idea of Brexit but to legitimate something which had no legitimacy - a no deal Brexit.

Now the only Brexit which is legitimate for his supporters is no deal. That wasn’t the case before. It seems v unlikely to me now that if there were a referendum no deal couldn’t be on the ballot in some form. There was a mandate available in these elections and he has seized it.

The Brexit process has proved the perfect incubator for Farage and Fargism. His whole prospectus was that there is an establishment which doesn’t represent ordinary people. The Brexit process has (wrongly, I think) to his supporters proved complete vindication of his worldview.

That’s why Farage barely mentions immigration any more. He doesn’t need to. He has a new political target.

Faragism is now a full frontal assault on British political institutions. There isn’t a single one which escapes Farage’s ire. Parliament, the courts, the media, the electoral commission, all form one nefarious establishment seeking to undo popular will.

The effect of the botched Brexit process has been to undo whatever trust was left in our political institutions. Farage is stepping into that gap.On the campaign trail I have been shocked at the level of vitriol and acrimony that voters have towards every organ of British society

Farage says he’s channeling that in a positive way. He’s entitled to his view. But the biggest charge against Farage isn’t about funding it’s about that corrosive attitude towards our whole political life. The truth is leaving the EU is complicated and I think he knows that.

But by saying it’s easy, that there’s a neat off the shelf solution called WTO he sets up a world where an establishment could choose it but don’t, because they’re malign, because they are antithetical to the people. But guess what, he can only do it because no one countered him.

For the two main party leaders have gone missing in action, as Farage told me “I couldn’t believe my luck” that they allowed him a free run in this election. It’s allowed him to completely set the terms of political trade.

Whatever happens now, he’s already won. Once again he’s pulling off his old trick- he’s resetting the Tory party in his image, just as he did in 2014. It is now far more likely to vote for a leader committed to no deal and determined to absorb his vote. Just like before.

In terms of its Brexit policy prescription, in terms of its outlook, against virtually every British political institution the Brexit Party is the most radical (or extreme depending on your view) force in British politics I can think of. I am startled by its resonance.

I think we are only at the beginning of a profound transformation of British political culture. It’s why I’ve been following the Brexit party from its genesis six weeks ago. Tune into @SkyNews on Friday for my special feature length report.

In short UKIP and BXP are very different beasts. UKIP was a deeply hotchpotch collection of people, policies and ideas. It was in its own way within a British political tradition.

The Brexit Party is brand new: it’s a full on populist assault on British political institutions.