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1. OK, it's time for some game theory on what's going on in the Democratic primaries right now. Some caveats: 1) I'm somewhat biased toward one candidate and 2) my track record on predictions is as bad as any other political writer, maybe worse. AND...
2. ...if you shook me in the middle of the night and forced me to predict a nominee, I'd probably pick "Biden." His "electability" strategy of convincing Dems he's the only guy (emphasis on the word "guy") to beat Trump has been stunningly successful philly.com/opinion/joe-bi…
3. That said, a lot is going to happen in the next 8-10 months and even if Biden doesn't somehow collapse SOMEONE will emerge as "the anti-Biden." As someone covering his 10th (sigh) campaign, this happens every time, Only 1 candidate has the path to be "the anti-Biden" in 2020..
4. That's ELIZABETH WARREN. She's run a brilliant tortoise 🐢🐢v. hare campaign, lapping the field with her policy ideas and proving she's plenty likable to everyone who's not a sexist, and -- guess what? -- she's finally moving up in the polls vox.com/policy-and-pol…
5. Some polls have Warren nearly catching Sanders for 2nd place -- which will be a major tipping point. But she'd still trail Biden. To catch him, Warren will have to unite three disparate factions of Democrats. But she can do this in a way that no other would-be Biden rival can
6. The first faction is 2016 Sanders voters -- a much more diverse group than the "Bernie Bros" they're portrayed as #onhere. These voters won't like establishment Joe in 2020 any more than they liked establishment Hillary in '16. They will vote for Warren if they see her as a...
7...a better chance to block Biden than Bernie. Many already are. A Morning Consult poll showed (with a small sample) that Warren is already beating Sanders among Dems who ID as "very liberal." I've seen this with liberal friends who were Bernie '16 voters.
8. The second faction is what I call #Resistance Dems, the cohort that's actively protested Trump, cares about the Russia scandal, and is heavily female, Many in this group see both Joe and Bernie as entitled white men leapfrogging qualified women candidates (they're not wrong)
9. Right now, this faction is divided among a slew of candidates -- particularly Warren and Kamala Harris but also Klobuchar and Gillibrand. Again, it's not hard to see these voters rallying behind an "anti-Biden." Many in this group do not like Bernie. They like Liz, though
10. Then there's the group that's been really decisive for Dems in '08 and '16 -- the large pool of non-white voters. Remember the great switch from Clinton to Obama in SC in '08? There's an opening in '20 for Harris or Booker to do that. They still could. But...
11. ...there's evidence that it's Warren making inroads with African-American women - at least the activists and influencers, for now - who like her policies such as free college and increasingly like her style. So, think about it: If Warren can unite... apnews.com/7db90b8ea82849…
12....the core left-wing of the party and a goodly number of non-whites, do you recognize that? It's the Obama coalition that stunned Hillary in '08. And add to that the energy of the suburban women who are the #Resistance and all of a sudden....
13. ...the tortoise 🐢 is crossing the finish line and the hare is asking what the hell just happened. It's hardly a slam dunk. Warren is still going to have to convince a lot of nervous voters that a woman -- specifically this woman -- can beat Trump in 11/20.
14. But here's the deal: There's no "electability" unless people are excited about a candidate. And I see excitement around Elizabeth Warren, and it will only grow as she rises to challenge Biden around the far turn. She has a clear path. She can do this -30-
