Thread by @ltthompso

It’s gonna be Sanders. And centrist Dems will hold their noses and vote for him.

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1104187087035777024

The only Bernie-slayer out there is Beto. It ain’t gonna be Biden.

And for the record, I think Trump probably beats Bernie three times out of five - and would have beat him in 2016 too. Still, Bernie is very close to being president and most people seem blissfully unaware of this fact.

This is the limit case of the Trump negative polarization strategy. It’s ideal against Harris or Biden, or even Beto. But it’s no good against Bernie. Gonna be a weird couple years.

Now, because Dems do everything by proportional representation, we could have a brokered convention. And the DNC would totally steal the nomination from Bernie and hand it to a unity ticket of second and third place. That may be the most likely scenario.

The superdelegates don’t get to vote on the first ballot, but if Bernie falls short and it goes to a second round, you can be damned sure it’ll be a real brokered convention. Which, on the one hand, is kind of exciting! On the other hand, hoo boy, it takes a lot of steel.

Look, I hear the argument that the Dems are infatuated with identity politics. That’s true of their elites and a segment of their electorate. I mention the policy vacuousness of the center-left and its reach for IdPol here.

nationalreview.com/magazine/2018/…

But the Dems are in a different position than the Rs going into 2016. First, the ideological center of the Democratic Party is aligned with its epistemic fringe (It’s Mueller Time for some game theory, etc). It’s ideological fringe has a clear, discrete program.

Now, that program has been susceptible to hijacking by both ideological and political opportunists. Nonetheless, the ideological edge of the Ds is not being cast into outer Siberia. Would Boehner have taken this pic with Freedom Caucus members?

But the broader point is that there is no ONE candidate of the IdPol center-left. By contrast, Bernie stands alone as the candidate of the Left. That’s enough to come in first.

And as @RichLowry said on The Editors the other day, don’t overthink it. Bernie has the small donors, the crowds, and the volunteers.

That could change - white libs love Beto - but until it does, it’s gonna be Bernie.

Anyway, here’s something I wrote several years ago about Bernie’s treatment by the media, which is also an explanation of his political strengths and weaknesses.

link.medium.com/tLuy0lFbUU