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A thread on the 2014 and 2019 elections: Many hailed the 2014 election as historic. It really wasn’t. At least not at the time. It may well have laid the groundwork for 2019, but 2019 is a much, much bigger deal. (1/12)
Why wasn’t 2014 as groundbreaking an election as many thought? 1. BJP vote share in 2014 was about where Congress’ was in 2009 (~30%)—nothing historic, even if an all-time high for the BJP. (2/12)
2. In most states, the BJP only improved marginally on its prior best performance (~5% or less). What made 2014 a great election for the BJP was that it managed to equal or slightly best its performance in most (but not all) states. (3/12)
3. The BJP had major breakthroughs in only a few states—Assam, Haryana, and, to some extent, Bihar. In most places it did well in areas of prior strength and remained marginal where it had long been a bit player. (4/12)
4. As @NeelanjanSircar pointed out after 2014, the BJP’s "strike rate" was shockingly high, given its modest vote share. It basically won everywhere that it was competitive. (5/12)
All of this meant that 2014 looked like a bit of a fluke. The BJP had a really good election and won a majority thanks to a fortuitous votes-to-seats translation, but a lot of fundamental things about the party system had not changed that much. (6/12)
So, what makes 2019 different and a much bigger deal? 1. The BJP’s vote share looks to be a lot higher than in the past, closer to (if still short of) what Congress won during its days of dominance. This is a big shift. (7/12).
2. If current vote tallies hold, then the BJP did spectacularly in a bunch of states, far exceeding its prior best in many states, including Delhi, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Odisha, and West Bengal. (8/12)
We don’t actually see landslides (vote share of 50%+) much in Indian politics anymore, but the BJP had a bunch this year, crossing 50% (as of now) in 8 major states plus a number of smaller ones, and just shy of 50% in UP. (9/12)
For comparison, in Congress’ historic 1984 victory, it crossed the 50% vote share mark in 12 major states (caveat: there were 4 fewer large states then). The BJP reached the majority mark in only 3 states in 2014. (10/12)
3. Breakthroughs in Odisha and Bengal, solidification of gains in Haryana and Assam, and improvement upon already good performances in Karnataka and UP mean that patterns of competition in many states appear to have changed markedly. (11/12)
If 2019 presages future elections (a big if), then things have really changed and 2014 marked the transition between old and new patterns. 2014 was not itself the big shift but it might prove to be a harbinger of big changes. (12/12)
