Profile picture
Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
BTW we're looking at European election turnout trends because there's no other data to go on until Sunday night, but things could go well/disastrously even if turnout were subdued (which appears not to be the case) because at the end of the day vote distribution dictates MEPs.
So I am cautiously optimistic on the limited trends we have, but that's optimism based largely on guesswork.
My prediction: total vote share for Tories+Brexit Party+UKIP will end up trailing the nationwide % suggested by recent polls by a couple of % or so. It'll probably land in the 40-43% range rather than 45%+. And that difference may tip an MEP race or two in a different direction.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @uk_domain_names see all

Profile picture
Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
We'll know the results of the European elections by tomorrow afternoon (with much of them coming in overnight) but it's interesting that one trend that would explain the vote being down in Leave areas and up in Remain areas is a drop in Leave turnout & increase in Remain turnout.
All sorts of pairs of figures could give a crude approximation of the early turnout figures we've seen, for example:
Leave turnout -6%, Remain turnout +9%
Or (another example): Leave turnout -8%, Remain turnout +11%
Read 7 tweets
Profile picture
Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Imagine:
Boris Johnson gets picked as next Tory leader. 3-4 Tory MPs leave the party because they can't stomach the idea. Bang, Tory+DUP majority is ancient history.

Could the Queen invite BJ to the Palace in good conscience, knowing he doesn't command the confidence of the HOC?
Bonus question: if not him, who? Because under that scenario it's clear nobody else does either.

Could the Queen force a GE? And would she risk the backlash that would inevitably follow?
That's the thing. She may be stuck either way. She shouldn't invite BJ constitutionally, because she already knows full well he doesn't have the confidence of the HOC ie he has fallen at the first hurdle to becoming PM. But practically? That's another matter...
Read 7 tweets
Profile picture
Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Looking at this early turnout data, looks like turnout in strong Leave areas was static or down, while the more Remain the area, the higher the turnout grew, broadly speaking. That hints that perhaps Leavers stayed away, while Remainers came out in force.
If that's the case (and we'll know Sunday night) there could be some pleasant surprises. It's all very well the Brexit Party polling 30%+, but if on the day its supporters stayed away more than those voting for pro-Remain parties did, that nominal 30% would quickly erode.
(Extreme) example: take a fictional pool of 10,000 voters.
Brexit Party polls 30% so that's 3,000 potential BP voters.
LibDems poll 15% so that's 1,500 potential LD voters.
However...
BP turnout is 30% = 900 votes cast for BP.
LD turnout is 60% = 900 votes cast for LD.
🙄
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Kevin Alcock
@kevina364
EUROPEAN ELECTION PREVIEW THREAD

So here we are a day from finding out the results of an election that should not be happening. It will be a strange election which will make it a lot of fun.
the Brexit Party and Lib Dems will do well, Lab and the Tories will do terribly, possibly historically so.(In the Tories case, definitely historically so)
The results will be about momentum going into the next phase of Brexit. There will be enough in them for both sides of the EU argument to claim things are going in their direction regardless of if it is true or not.
Read 37 tweets
Profile picture
Helene von Bismarck
@HeleneBismarck
For the UK, the #European Elections are no replacement for a second referendum. Nor are they just a symbolic act. All the more reason to vote. Thread (I am not going to tell you how to vote. Just to vote.) 1
There is something bizarre about holding European Elections in 🇬🇧 3 years after the referendum. Voters are being asked to cast their vote in an election without knowing what the legal and constitutional significance of that election will be. Two scenarios are imaginable: 2
Scenario A: if 🇬🇧 leaves the EU by October 31 or even before then, British MEPs will only take their seats in the European Parliament for an extremely short period of time. 3
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Wes Finalle
@wfinalle57
The federal bureaucracy enjoys a pampered protected life with benefits far above the rest of us. A family with one parent working in the sixties owned a house, car, had family healthcare, a retirement pension & enjoyed a paid vacation and could afford to take the family!
You pathetic political blood sucking leaches accumulate fortunes by insider information, pay to play bribery favors, outright public corruption compensated corporate puppets.
Agreeing to blow the hell out of country after country since the Spanish War disaster. Take America's cheese and pay outragious amounts to rebuild every infrastructure but America's which you gifted a poop map in Cal. But no high speed coast 2 coast rail let alone the damn dam!
Read 15 tweets
Profile picture
𝚏𝚎𝚗
@fenrir_71
Cohen's testimony starts in one minute...

Stay tuned for live tweets.
Shhhhh, Rep. Cummings is about to speak...

Gaveled in.

@MarkMeadows is already trying to stop the hearing, accusing the dems and Cohen of purposefully delaying the revealed testimony.

A repud complaining about the rules in a house committee. 🙄😄
Now @MarkMeadows is using cable TV as his evidence, of COURSE.

Motion to table the hearing voted down.

Oh FFS they're trying HARD.

This is ALREADY great.😄
Read 100 tweets
Profile picture
Rachel Murphy Azzara #DemsWork4USA
@RachelAzzara
#NewYork You have a primary #election tomorrow - Tuesday, June 26. Please make a plan to go vote and remind your friends and family!

#DemsWork4USA #WinBlue
#Democrats #Progressives #Moderates
#NY #NYC #NYpolitics #NYpol
#NYprimary
POLLS OPEN AT

12 NOON to 9 PM in all places.

6 AM to 9 PM: In #NYC and the counties of #Nassau, #Suffolk, #Westchester, #Rockland, #Orange, #Putnam, #Dutchess and #Erie

Ref: elections.ny.gov/FAQ.html
.
#NYprimary
POLLS OPEN AT

12 NOON to 9 PM in all places including below that have extended hours.

6 AM to 9 PM: In #NYC and the counties of #Nassau, #Suffolk, #Westchester, #Rockland, #Orange, #Putnam, #Dutchess and #Erie

Ref: elections.ny.gov/FAQ.html
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Catherine Walsh
@gurriersread
Oh the geezers are hard at it grafting media, it's always great to have easy scapegoats "North Korean cyber gangs.." a.msn.com/01/en-ie/AAt9g…
2/"Mr Murphy’s firm was the first in the world to liaise with computer giant IBM over the use of the super-computer ‘Watson’ for real-time--
3/artificial intelligence-based defence against cyber criminals." Bear with me, I'm about to post a few more links in #THREAD #CyberSecurity
Read 71 tweets

Trending hashtags

#BacktoFront #NYpol #FRAUD #DeepState #Deleted #buttplug #Fuck #SCL #PascoProud #automation #extreme #SiliconValley #Johnson #Elections #Google #REDDIT #scary #PartyBeforeCountry #customer #PascoCounty #today #FUBAR #bh2019 #DemsWork4USA #CambridgeAnalytica
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!