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BTW we're looking at European election turnout trends because there's no other data to go on until Sunday night, but things could go well/disastrously even if turnout were subdued (which appears not to be the case) because at the end of the day vote distribution dictates MEPs.
So I am cautiously optimistic on the limited trends we have, but that's optimism based largely on guesswork.
My prediction: total vote share for Tories+Brexit Party+UKIP will end up trailing the nationwide % suggested by recent polls by a couple of % or so. It'll probably land in the 40-43% range rather than 45%+. And that difference may tip an MEP race or two in a different direction.
