,
6 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
Looking at this early turnout data, looks like turnout in strong Leave areas was static or down, while the more Remain the area, the higher the turnout grew, broadly speaking. That hints that perhaps Leavers stayed away, while Remainers came out in force.
If that's the case (and we'll know Sunday night) there could be some pleasant surprises. It's all very well the Brexit Party polling 30%+, but if on the day its supporters stayed away more than those voting for pro-Remain parties did, that nominal 30% would quickly erode.
(Extreme) example: take a fictional pool of 10,000 voters.
Brexit Party polls 30% so that's 3,000 potential BP voters.
LibDems poll 15% so that's 1,500 potential LD voters.
However...
BP turnout is 30% = 900 votes cast for BP.
LD turnout is 60% = 900 votes cast for LD.
🙄
Brexit Party polls 30% so that's 3,000 potential BP voters.
LibDems poll 15% so that's 1,500 potential LD voters.
However...
BP turnout is 30% = 900 votes cast for BP.
LD turnout is 60% = 900 votes cast for LD.
🙄
That was absurdly generous to make it easy to illustrate the point. But we could well see exactly that scenario, on a less extreme scale, playing out across the UK when the results come in on Sunday evening. And suddenly that changes all the MEP calculations.
This could all turn out to be nothing. But it's certainly one way of explaining the turnout trends.
Here's a graph with more turnout figures plotted that illustrates the trend well. Too many data points to be a statistical blip, but of course there could be many competing explanations including ones that favour Leave.
