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An individual can form an opinion on which team win a sporting event relatively quickly. They are free to express that view on Twitter. You can see people do the same thing for a stock. The best investors focus on finding the better "betting value" instead of predicting winners.
Michael Mauboussin: "expected value [is] a central concept in any probabilistic exercise. Expected value formalizes the idea that your return on an investment is the product of the probabilities and the various outcomes and the payoff from each outcome.” google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
Venture capital is an extreme case since better betting value is determined by how cheaply one can buy optionality. Optionality is sometimes mis-priced and can be bought at a bargain. Those situations tend to be in places where others are not looking and the failure rate is high.
