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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
When people look at the lifetime value (CLV) formula they may think "Oh this is like math." Yes, there is a formula but if the assumptions are wrong you may have less than nothing. The future of a business can't be calculated like an annuity since humans don't behave predictably.
Bill Gurley and I talked when he was writing this essay about how CLV is a useful organizing tool but you need to be careful about how it is used. All formulas are wrong and some are useful. Applying CLV is a black art --previous experience is helpful. google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
What is new is that there is far more customer telemetry and new data science tools than ever before and so the scientific method can be applied to managing a customer relationship. But if the assumptions are wrong even with these new tools it may be garbage in and garbage out.
Sorry, here's the correct link to the Bill Gurley essay. abovethecrowd.com/2012/09/04/the… Every variable in the formula is interdependent. People are involved and nests of complex adaptive systems are present. Humans are still really good at understanding how outcomes may vary from math.
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Four words of advice meme:

Stay in competence circle
Maintain margin of safety
Price is not value
The Market is bipolar
Buy bargains and wait
Be a learning machine
Use multiple diverse models
Favorable odds are essential
Be rational, avoid hubris
Avoid high transaction costs
Solve real customer problems
Value before growth hypothesis
No cash no business
Can't spend GAAP earnings
Software eating the world
Love high gross margins
Avoiding stupid is smart
Solve problems by inversion
Don't pee electric fences
Help others learn more
Want love? Be lovable
Understand business better investor
Understand investing better business
Discount future cash flows
Optionality can be mis-priced
Markets are inevitably cyclical
Effortless money sedates rationality
Risk is possibility of loss
Uncertainty is not computable
Be happy right now.
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
If you want to sell a lot of copies of a financial advice book, historical evidence reveals that an author should recommend a simple formula (e.g., never buy coffee drinks or flip houses with no money down). Unfortunately, the market for actually useful financial advice is small.
The probability someone will buy a useful financial advice book is inversely proportional to their need to read that book. In other words, the people who would benefit most from the book are least likely to buy and actually read it. Many people believe buying the book is enough.
When an actually useful book like Range by David Epstein breaks through to best seller lists, it makes me smile. amazon.com/Range-Generali…
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
When I write a 25IQ blog post like I did this morning on @skupor 's new book I never have an editor. I make changes to the text up to the last minute. I appreciate when someone picks up a typo. Two of my motto's are: write fast and furious and write first and ask question later.
"For 14 years he toiled unremittingly. He had his subject at his finger ends, and at last was ready to begin. He sat down to write. He died.

He did what he wanted, and he died when his goal was in sight and never knew the bitterness of an end achieved."
redfez.net/fiction/obsess…
Somerset Maugham's Mayhew is an example of how you can convery ideas with a story. He said once: "I have never pretended to be anything but a story teller. The telling of a story just for the sake of the story is not an activity that is in favor with the intelligentsia."
Read 3 tweets

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I’ve been following the discussion of disability #RepresentationMatters for a while, and I have thoughts. So many thoughts. I wrote this thread out in advance to get them all in one place, and it ended up being super long, so be forewarned. A few stipulations:
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Mike
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How to make more money in your #business using sales funnels:

1. Build out a funnel that has 2 up sells and 2 down sells
2. Bring the customer through the journey shown in the picture
3. Profit!

I will explain in this thread:
NOTE: These are just examples 😎
Step 1. Say you sell a #sports water bottle for $19, why not also offer a gym bag or a diet/workout plan course for $27? (up sell #1) If the person says no, offer them a head sweat band for $9.95 (down sell #1)
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Jamie McSloy
@JamieMcSloy
This is common among entrepreneurial folks, because they're the ones with a) the desire for loot, and b) the financial savvy to make it out of the dreamer stage.

Not about conquering. It's about channelling it.

Might make a thread on easy & smart ways to do this.
Have a legitimate treasure chest.

Cash on hand feels "real" and sets your mind at rest. Take out say, $50 a week and put it in a box or something.

Later, you can do this with other valuable items.

Speaking of which...
Invest in good stuff.

Can be watches, jewellery, gold or other stuff that holds its value.

You can have a bookshelf stocked with invisible stuff that's worth more money than a bank account.

Sets your mind at ease, allows you to spend money and not lose it because of the value
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Shadeed Q. Eleazer
@mrshadeed
Did you know that over 80% of businesses are undercharging for their services?

Here's why you need to raise your rates:

(Thread)

#Sales #smallbiz
Raising Your Rates is a Sign of Professionalism:

If you pay rent, your property management company raises rent each year.
The cost of access to gas, electric, and other utilities also rises each year.

Your rates must rise to support cost of living expenses.
Raising Your Rates Signals High Value or Quality

Low pricing immediately raises suspicion.

Premium rates signify quality, prestige, and luxury for business services.
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Justin Hubert
@JustinHubert
Ok, one more tweet thread on #ucpagm then I gotta be done for the night.

I’m including Kikki and Dr Jay, why? Because we see eye to eye, agree on most shit, I like them, and unashamedly, I hope the message gets lifted.

This thread is about kids

My kids
Your kids
Albertans kids
Parents

You don’t own your kids.

Yes, the are “yours” but they are not YOURS.

Yes, the creator gave them to you to take care of

No, you do not own them

Our world struggled with the ownership of PEOPLE for years, in some places it still does, but not in a democratic society
So this three is about #abed, #ableg our schools, parenting and the work I have dedicated the last 25 years of my life to.

I have 4 kids

Right there we gotta take a look at the language trick we play on ourselves. I say, I have 4 kids, but that isn’t about ownership.
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