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Some thoughts on what the European election means in France, as the French head today to the polls. The vote here has turned, in effect, into a re-run of the 2nd round of the 2017 presidential election: Macron v Marine Le Pen 1/10
This makes France something of a test case for whether the liberal centre can hold against the forces of nationalism and populism. But it’s an imperfect test: the stakes are not the same, and Euro-elections are often used to cast a protest vote 2/10
It suited both Macron and Le Pen to turn it into a duel. He called it an “existential” moment in Europe’s fight against populism. She has campaign posters that just declare: Vote against Macron 3/10
For En Marche, the key is turn-out and whether it can mobilise its 24% core vote (its 2017 1st-round score). But Macron is up against apathy and low popularity ratings—and has picked a weak uncharismatic leading candidate, Nathalie Loiseau 4/10
Le Pen scored 25% in the 2014 Euro elections, and latest polls suggest she will come top again. This is Macron’s 1st mid-term test. He is weakened by the gilets jaunes. And she is an old hand at the populist game. Her slogan this year? “Let’s give power to the people” 5/10
MLP has also picked a slick 23-year-old candidate, Jordan Bardella, and argues that she’s no longer for leaving the euro, or Frexit, but for reforming the EU from inside, now that she has friends (like Salvini) in government to do this with 6/10
In some ways, it’s remarkable that Macron is even on Le Pen’s heels. In 2014, the sitting president François Hollande scored just 14%, and came 3rd. So 2nd place ought to be respectable for a mid-term vote 7/10
Coming 2nd won’t also affect Macron’s strong domestic parliamentary majority, nor in theory his ability to govern. But he upped the stakes and made the vote personal, and so 2nd place will be a symbolic set-back 8/10
France is less about fragmentation, though that’s partly what’s happened to the mainstream parties. The Socialists' 2017 pres candidate, Benoît Hamon, has a different list to the Socialist Party, whose candidat, Raphaël Glucksmann is from outside the PS. Both are struggling 9/10
This campaign is yet another a reminder that Macron’s party, like the discontent in the country, and the functioning of the French Fifth Republic, still centres overwhelmingly on him 10/10
