,
15 tweets,
3 min read
Read on Twitter
I spent the day in Peterborough yesterday. I wasn't just admiring the cathedral, I was talking to voters and candidates too (not Labour or the Tories, v unusually for a by election they both declined an inerview). It is a headscratcher of a contest.
Clearly the Brexit Party have the wind at their back. They've real momentum after the Euros. The area voted 61% to leave. They've got a good, local candidate who is well liked in the constituency. They've also got a v committed band of volunteers from all over the country.
But in some ways this isn't ideal territory for them. It's a fast growing city (4th fastest growing in Britain), increasing number of youngish graduates have moved in. The demographics are changing and changing quickly.
It's a classic Labour/Tory marginal, it's been held by one or other since 1910. The party has no data on its potential voters and is reliant on old school campaigning coupled with newer digital advertising. Worked in the Euros, harder to predict in one constituency.
Labour's candidate, mired in allegations of anti-Semtism, has not had a good campaign and Fiona Onasanya's demise was hardly a great advert for the party- voters are embarrassed about it. But Lab has a formidable campaigning machine- they're not giving it up without a fight.
Like nationally, remainer voters were immensely frustrated with Corbyn's position. One described it to me as "an absolute shambles from start to finish." There is clear draining of support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
Given Labour clearly won the constituency in 2017 by bringing virtually all the remain vote behind them (and won by 600) that's a big problem. Likewise More traditional Labour voters are irritated with Corbyn more widely, not just about Brexit but a host of other issues.
I get the feeling all of Lab's problems will crystallise in Pborough on Thursday. But you get the sense they're at least still vaguely in contention. What was most striking of all is that as much as locals were complaining about Labour no-one even mentioned the Tories.
This was a seat they held until 2017, if there's any hope of a Tory majority it's a must win. But it's as if they've retreated from the battlefield in the minds of voters. It felt as if the Brexit Party weren't just the Leave party but the right of centre party too.
Perhaps that isn't surprising given the Tories have no Brexit position, no policy prospectus of any kind right now. Still, it felt very bad indeed for them. They can't afford for their voters to break the habit of Conservative voting like this.
And even the best case scenario could be gloomy for them. They hold up a decent percentage of their vote, the rest goes to the Brexit Party, Leave vote splits and Labour squeak in. Could be a portent of a general election.
Most likely outcome, I suspect, is Brexit Party wins but on a relatively small percentage of the vote. Labour squeak second, Lib Dems third, greens fourth, Tories fifth. But not much of a mandate for anyone given vote divided up every which way.
But who knows, one day on the ground isn't long enough to be certain. Most locals seemed resigned/joyous that BXP will win. But with the vote splitting in at least five directions, on a reduced turnout, something surprising could happen.
Possibly a taste of an even more volatile British political map to come.
