Thread by @lewis_goodall

PETERBOROUGH BY ELECTION RESULT (AND WHAT IT MEANS THREAD)

Con: 7243 (3rd)
Lab: 10484 (1st)
Brexit: 9801 (2nd)
Lib Dem: 4159 (4th)
Green:1035 (5th)

RESULT: LABOUR HOLD
MAJ: 683
Turnout: 48%

First things first a really good result for Labour and for Jeremy Corbyn. It was called in bad circumstances with an imperfect campaign. Triumph of their their local campaigning machine. They had hundreds of activists there (big Momentum presence too). An increased majority.

It seems that they've kept the bleeding to the Lib Dems and the Greens at bay. Indicates that one of the main factors of their 2017 performance (ability to corral remain vote) is not completely nullified in a Westminster context.

That said it is the lowest ever victory (as a %) for a by election (as I thought it might be). But it would have been for anyone. If there is a general election, lots of seats will look like this, the vote split in every direction.

The Brexit Party will be sorely disappointed not to win this seat. It was a heavily leave seat (though the demographics are changing, the seat is definitely trending remain/Labour it wasn't perfect for them). They had a lot of momentum behind them. This will dent that.

When I was there on Tuesday they were in rude spirits. Candidates bussed in from all over the country. But that was the problem. Their youth as a party came to bite them. Hundreds of activists, no infrastructure, no idea where to send them or to campaign, no Get out the Vote.

That didn't matter in the Euros where you can win via the air war (though it did probably cost them a few points). But in one seat it does. The ground war matters as does data on the voters. It mattered here.

The Tories are in third place and frankly it's a sign of their diminished fortunes that they'll be happy with that (given they have no leader, no policies, no Brexit position). But they are now at third, vote down by 25 points, in a seat they held as recently as 2017.

Still, likewise their vote held up better than it might have done. Like the Lab/LD/G result, it showed the potency (even in a by election) of FPTP and how established the duopoly is. Will be more powerful still at a general (if Lab/Tories can overtake insurgents again in polling)

The Brexit Party really need to work on expectation management. To nearly take the seat for a party which didn't exist a few months ago is really good going. But it doesn't feel like that and that won't be the story. That's largely their fault.

But the Brexit Party don't need to win a single seat to make a seismic difference. Just take a good wedge of Tory votes at a general election in key marginals. Net result=Labour government (even if it's a minority one).

The Brexit Party doesn't need to be electorally dominant to succeed- they just need to exist. The fact the Tory party is in such apoplexy at the moment shows that. As long as they exist and continue to poll well, the Tory Party will be committed to a hard Brexit.

That's why when people say "where is the BXP manifesto?" they miss the point. They're not really a political party in many ways, at least not yet. They're a massive pressure group on the Tory Party, like UKIP was. That's where their significance in overall British politics lies.

In terms of the impact on the Tory leadership, suspect it will be more muted than if BXP had won. Though clearly strong BXP performance will be grist to Johnson's mill. Will argue only he can see them off and win seats like P'boro back (Tory plus BXP vote > Labour)

In terms of losers from tonight, I suspect among the biggest will be those inside the Labour Party arguing for a change in Labour's Brexit position. Despite some seepage to LDs/Gs this will fortify resolve of Milne/Murphy/Corbyn not to change tack.

Corbyn was never vulnerable to challnge but this will help him emerge from the deep locals/Euros rut a bit (though on paper holding a seat from opposition shouldn't be the greatest fillip such are the odd times we are in).

Lib Dems had big improvement on 2017, though not anywhere near 2010 levels in the seat. Think they'll privately be a little disappointed.

In terms of impact on the Brexit process this keeps a crucial vote in the Labour/soft Brexit column. Some of the crucial votes have been won by one. You never know when it'll matter. We might yet come to remember it important Pboro didn't return a no dealer to Parl.

When I went on Tuesday I wrote I thought BXP would squeak it but given the vote would be split five ways couldn't discount a Labour victory, with strong ground game. So it came to be. If there is a gen election and we haven't Brexited get used to Pboro...

...because this is what we'll see. 533 seats in England with the vote split five ways. 99 in Scotland and Wales with the vote split six ways. Mega unpredictability. Likely result? A parliament even more hung (so to speak) than we have right now...

Final thought. It is just one result. One by-election. The machines wouldn't be able to operate as they have here in a general. But, it strikes me that if this were repeated nationally, Labour would have cause to be cheerful...

Why? the Brexit Party did well but didn't eradicate Tory vote completely. The Tories performed *just* well enough for Labour and BXP *just* poorly enough. If BXP took any more of the Tory vote they'd have won. BXP/Tories are held in an uneasy balance.

The relative positions of the two could easily be reversed in a general but again would prob be enough to deliver at least a minority govt for Labour. It wouldn't be much of a mandate but Team Corbyn (after 9 years for Lab in opp) would take it.

Now. Bed.

You were right to stay up. No, honestly you were.