Thread by @mariliacout

1/ This poll is from yesterday at 8PM. The link to the full survey is below. What does it tell us?
a. That Biden is (still, see below) leading
b. That Warren, Bernie and Buttigieg are technically tied

cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/image…

c. That in 10 days, Biden has lost 10 points of advantage. That is A LOT in demographic terms. I don't have the number broken down by demographic variables.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_…

d. But Biden's loss of vote intentions is much smaller than Beto O'Rourke, who is now a minor player.
e. That the Buttigieg's rise is unexpectedly high.
f. That Warren is maintaining a leadership position with a slow and steady rise

4 /
g. That Harris is maintaining her position.
Everybody else is way behind.

5 / That's all. No predictions will be more than guesses. This is when the actual preference profile will take shape:

6 / And this is when it will be decided:

7 / A lot, but not everything can happen in one year. There are tendencies taking shape already. The decrease in Biden's preference numbers reflects skepticism about his power to be a unifying voice to defeat Trump.

8 / This is less about preference than about trust. The "unifier", the person who will lead a "front" or what is in practice a "coalition" must, above all, gain the trust of every major player.

9 / O'Rourke has been "loud with no plan" while Warren had "plans but was not loud". Surprisingly, in times when populism is gaining ground, plans are showing more weight than emotion and empty headlines.

10 / There's a lot of ground to cover and the international setting, with potential seismic impact from several nodes in the network, is a great incognita.

11 / Demographic and social data suggested that the best P-VP arrangement would contemplate
- female + male
- non-white + white
But that's not what the current numbers are telling us concerning the available candidates. Other arrangements may be the highest chance ones.

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