,
16 tweets,
7 min read
Read on Twitter
THREAD: Anatomy of a Warren ‘surge' (or how the media found their latest narrative and supercharged it by sticking to it in spite of the data).
4/8: RCP Avg 5.9%
WaPo: “Why Hasn’t Warren Achieved Liftoff?”
WaPo: “Why Hasn’t Warren Achieved Liftoff?”
4/23 RCP Avg 6.5% (+0.6%)
New Republic: “Elizabeth Warren is struggling to gain traction in the polls… but she’s exactly where she needs to be.”
New Republic: “Elizabeth Warren is struggling to gain traction in the polls… but she’s exactly where she needs to be.”
5/1 RCP Avg. 8.4% (+2.9%)
Boston Globe: “New…polls suggest Warren gaining momentum..."
(True!)
Boston Globe: “New…polls suggest Warren gaining momentum..."
(True!)
5/3 RCP Avg. 8.0% (-0.4%)
The Hill: “Warren shows signs of momentum after slow start.”
The Hill: “Warren shows signs of momentum after slow start.”
5/13 RCP Avg 8.3% (+0.3%)
LAT: “Warren is on a roll but faces big obstacles…”
LAT: “Warren is on a roll but faces big obstacles…”
5/17 RCP Avg. 8.4% (+0.1%)
Newsweek: “Warren support growing as Sanders drops in battle of progressives…”
(Warren's support had been level for ~2 weeks, but narrative continues).
Newsweek: “Warren support growing as Sanders drops in battle of progressives…”
(Warren's support had been level for ~2 weeks, but narrative continues).
5/22 RCP Avg. 9.8% (+1.5%)
Vox: “What’s behind Warren’s comeback in the polls”
FNC: “Warren's rebound?”
(Is +1.5% over 3 weeks a comeback or a rebound?)
Vox: “What’s behind Warren’s comeback in the polls”
FNC: “Warren's rebound?”
(Is +1.5% over 3 weeks a comeback or a rebound?)
5/29 RCP Avg. 9.8% (+0%)
Vogue: “Nevertheless, Warren is persisting in the polls…”
NYT: “Warren gains ground, one plan at a time…”
(Warren has leveled off again.)
Vogue: “Nevertheless, Warren is persisting in the polls…”
NYT: “Warren gains ground, one plan at a time…”
(Warren has leveled off again.)
6/2 RCP Avg. 8.7% (-0.3%)
FT: “Warren Finds her footing…”
(The footing-finding-because-of-detailed-policy narrative continues, even as Warren levels off/returns to early May levels, virtually unchanged since 5/1)
FT: “Warren Finds her footing…”
(The footing-finding-because-of-detailed-policy narrative continues, even as Warren levels off/returns to early May levels, virtually unchanged since 5/1)
6/5 RCP Avg. 8.2% (-0.5%)
MSNBC: “Warren gaining on Sanders in new polls…”
(🚨Whole-cloth narrative alert. Warren's support has dropped *below* levels from a month ago, but the narrative persists. Sanders has primarily lost ground to Biden.)
MSNBC: “Warren gaining on Sanders in new polls…”
(🚨Whole-cloth narrative alert. Warren's support has dropped *below* levels from a month ago, but the narrative persists. Sanders has primarily lost ground to Biden.)
6/12 RCP Avg. 10.8% (+2.6%)
CNN: “Warren’s new status: jockeying for 2nd place…"
(The narrative loop is complete.)
CNN: “Warren’s new status: jockeying for 2nd place…"
(The narrative loop is complete.)
@ewarren, who went up 3 points in April, then gained 1.5 points and lost 1.5 points in May, has benefited from a media narrative of 'gaining momentum.' Even as she leveled off and lost ground, media persisted in "policy detail = polling gain" narrative.
In this way, MSM headlines can be both a lagging (in the sense of reacting slowly to minor upticks) and leading (in the sense of leading the witness) indicator.
Even as Bernie clearly lost the biggest chunk of his support when Biden officially announced, media persisted in the "Bernie's losing ground to Warren" story, which keeps progressives in a box and feeds their need to neutralize Sanders.
The MSM desperately chase the laser pointer. First Kamala, then Beto (they tried!), then Pete (they love Pete), then Biden (they love Biden) now it's Warren. Bernie had an organic moment when he was the dominant frontrunner. But they're tired of him bc he ran in 2016.
