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Jerry Neumann
@ganeumann
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A taxonomy of moats.

Still not happy with this, but I think it’s better than the last one. Thanks for all the input...Thoughts on this one welcome!
I am particularly unhappy with the ‘sustainable competitive advantage’ piece...feels like this should be more important/have better explanations (and yes, I read 7 Powers since the last time.)
Also, the ‘variance reduction’ part seems weird because it is unlike the others, seems like it should be more important, and is not a terminology I’ve heard elsewhere so I think I’m getting the label wrong
And then there is the ‘being able to stay ahead of your competition through continuous improvement’ thing, which is left out...where does this fit?
Don't bother looking for V3, I didn't publish it
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Jerry Neumann
@ganeumann
I'm subtweeting re power laws because I don't want it to look like I'm being combative. I've just thought about this *a lot* so I'm skeptical of "answers" but very very supportive of people working on it
1/ We *don't* know that venture returns follow a power law distribution. We don't have the data. It's far more likely they follow a lognormal distribution, but this is boring to talk, think, or write about
2/ Any model that generates a PLD for VC returns requires some nitpicky fine-tuning that is unlikely to happen in the real world. PLDs do not spontaneously emerge as robustly as Gaussians
Read 13 tweets
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Jerry Neumann
@ganeumann
Deceleration is the wrong word for me. It may seem that way because I professionally care about one thing: startups. Not even progress, really, just the radical change brought about by a small group of people creating the future
I'm not fool enough to think the comings and goings of startups makes a huge difference. Look at real GDP for the past ~150 years (log scale) (from visualizingeconomics.com/blog/2010/11/0…)
You could draw a line with a ruler, with a few bumps. The 1950s and 1960s, when startups were fewer, is somewhat indistinguishable from the 1970s-1990s
Read 12 tweets
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Jerry Neumann
@ganeumann
This time is not different
Life Magazine, May 20, 1966
Scientific American, May 1973
Read 18 tweets

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