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Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Stepping back a bit on Brexit... Can someone remind me what the purported benefits of leaving the single market are? 1/
If to get ‘better trade deals’, how? Any FTA type deal with the EU will create added ‘friction’. The (unrealistic) aspiration for deals with the rest of the world is merely to maintain current arrangements. 2/
Deals with the rest of the world cannot begin to replace what the UK would lose from the EU. 3/
And... how will a hard border in Ireland be avoided if the UK leaves the single market, and has divergent standards from those in the EU? 4/
Shouldn’t everyone be demanding answers? 5/5
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More from @syrpis see all

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Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
I can't quite believe I'm doing this, but here goes. Some of the many problems with Boris Johnson's open letter to Jeremy Hunt... 1/
Johnson is right to say that we have failed to deliver Brexit. He should ask himself why. The vote to leave was not a simple 'big instruction' from the British people. The challenge for the Govt (and Parliament) was to find a way to make sense of the (narrow) vote to leave. 2/
The leaders of the leave campaign (like Johnson himself) made all manner of promises, many of them contradictory. They had no concrete plan for leaving the EU. When a deal was reached with the EU in November 2018, it was derided by Brexiters. 3/
Read 10 tweets
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Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
Time passes. Events happen. And still, everything remains the same. Thread. 1/
The UK will either leave the EU with a deal, leave without a deal, or it will not leave at all. That was true in June 2016, it was true in the run-up to March 2019, and it is still true now. 2/
The UK has reached an agreement with the EU. But that deal is not endorsed by MPs, and is not endorsed by many of the key leave figures (eg Johnson, Farage, Corbyn). 3/
Read 10 tweets
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Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
@CarolineFlintMP's comments on Marr this morning have prompted me to do some thinking (again) about Labour's Brexit policy. A quick thread. 1/
I understand the desire to respect the result of the referendum, and the desire to bring together leavers and remainers. I understand the desire for a 'good' Brexit, in which close relationships with the EU are maintained. 2/
I understand the desire to negotiate with the Govt, and to endeavour to get a 'good' Brexit deal. But, that has now failed. The new PM will not 'tack towards Labour'. So, the question is, where does the Party go from here? 3/
Read 13 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
⚡️🔥💥Northern Ireland service exports will take hit - even in a Canada-style deal, new research shows.

EG: In a 'no deal' computer services, engineering services and insurance face the equivalent of 24%, 14% and 15% tariffs 1/thread

economy-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/…

1/Thread
Why are services so neglected in #Brexit discussion? Because they are nebulous - but Brexit is likely to put frictional costs on services exports, just as it will on goods. And there is a way to quantify that /2
In the Northern Ireland context we particularly focus on goods/infrastructure because of the politics around the border issue and UK commitments not to bring back a hard border...but services will take a big hit in event of hard Brexit too. Just look at these numbers: /3
Read 12 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The problem at the heart of the #Brexit impasse is still whether the UK remain in a Customs Union with the EU.

Solve this and you largely solve Brexit. 1/Thread
Both the problem, and the failure to address it, is writ large in May's deal.

Officially UK is NOT joining a customs union....but in the absence of unicorns we clearly are.

Either via the Backstop or when its clear 'other arrangements' dont exist to fix the Irish border /2
Unfortunately May never had the courage to confront her Brexiteers over this fact. She fudged in Lancaster House, and kept fudging.

Recall this time last year, as the Irish reality dawned, senior peeps like @DLidington were flying kites on this.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Read 21 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. A thread on #trade and aid.

One of the first tangible benefits of #Brexit I've seen is the emerging reform of @DFID_UK where it is becoming more of an arm of trade policy than a state owned humanitarian NGO. I would like that to go much further and rethink trade.
2. I do not think we should be wasting too much effort on free trade deals largely because they are of questionable value and encourage inefficient value chains. Any work on tariffs should really be reserved for multilateral activity.
3. Instead we need DfID as the spearhead of our trade policy. There is no reason why we cannot pursue humanitarian goals and enhance our trade while we are at it. For a start we can do a lot with medicines and pharmacy products.
Read 21 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. The #Brexit question has always been one of what sort of relationship we want with the EU if not actual membership. Brexiters bleat "we just want trade" failing to note that regulatory harmonisation is central to free movement of goods.
2. The minimum condition of entry into the EU marketplace is compliance. Any third country can do that but without the ability to self-certify goods for circulation in the market they are subject to full third country controls at the borders.
3. Members of the single market avoid those customs controls by way of having the ability to self certify goods. This is why the single market is more pertinent to free movement of goods than the customs union.
Read 22 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. So with #Brexit, we now have a provisional whole UK political agreement that we will have regulatory alignment with a view to maintaining free movement of goods. The future trade agreement will have to respect those conditions.
2. That is a long winded way of say that so far as goods are concerned, we are staying in the single market. That though does not take into account services, air travel and the many other areas covered by the EEA agreement. That is still for negotiation.
3. When it comes down to that, it is likely that the UK will wish to preserve as much access to the EU aviation market as possible with the same or similar rights to the EEA. We have, as yet, no concrete position on what the UK will ask for in terms of services.
Read 25 tweets

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