Thread by @pmdfoster

⚡️🔥💥Northern Ireland service exports will take hit - even in a Canada-style deal, new research shows.

EG: In a 'no deal' computer services, engineering services and insurance face the equivalent of 24%, 14% and 15% tariffs 1/thread

economy-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/…

1/Thread

Why are services so neglected in #Brexit discussion? Because they are nebulous - but Brexit is likely to put frictional costs on services exports, just as it will on goods. And there is a way to quantify that /2

In the Northern Ireland context we particularly focus on goods/infrastructure because of the politics around the border issue and UK commitments not to bring back a hard border...but services will take a big hit in event of hard Brexit too. Just look at these numbers: /3

SO....I don't know how it works exactly, but the OECD has a formula/system that enables you to create 'tariff equivalents' for services - i.e the additional costs of non-tariff barriers from different levels of #Brexit

Sure @SamuelMarcLowe can explain how it works! /4

@SamuelMarcLowe This study by Northern Ireland's Department for Economy has some 13,000 data points and has had the rule run over it by Lowe and others - @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines - and it makes for pretty arresting reading.

Shows very clearly costs of a Canada-style deal /5

@SamuelMarcLowe @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines Now clearly not all services are 'tariff-free' (the Single Market in Services is not complete) but this charts shows predicted increases above current 'tariff equivalent' baseline. /6

@SamuelMarcLowe @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines But before all Brexiteers pile in and say 'see the single market in services barely exists' just look at the comparative 'tariff equivalent' figures for services trade into the USA /7

@SamuelMarcLowe @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines The study finds that on average in a 'no deal' NI services will face a 14.5% tariff equivalent into Ireland.

Someone like @JP_Biz might know how many average NI services providers could absorb that kind of hit. /8

@SamuelMarcLowe @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines @JP_Biz The full Department for NI Economy report is here...(hardcore trade wonks only...my first link is to the more digestable 10-page summary /8

economy-ni.gov.uk/publications/e…

@SamuelMarcLowe @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines @JP_Biz Also recommend Sam Lowe's @SamuelMarcLowe paper on impact of Brexit on services if UK leaves EU single market... /9

https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1070946806169780224

@SamuelMarcLowe @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines @JP_Biz Trade wonks will know better than me how accurate these 'tariff equivalents' are...but it has to be a useful exercise to try and put some concrete numbers on impacts to services. Otherwise they just slip though our fingers...(but not borders, alas). 10/ENDS

@SamuelMarcLowe @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines @JP_Biz PS....there is some talk that you can do lots of modern services-focussed FTAs to offset losses to services...but as @DmitryOpines explains in this vid...it aint that simple sadly