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Time passes. Events happen. And still, everything remains the same. Thread. 1/
The UK will either leave the EU with a deal, leave without a deal, or it will not leave at all. That was true in June 2016, it was true in the run-up to March 2019, and it is still true now. 2/
The UK has reached an agreement with the EU. But that deal is not endorsed by MPs, and is not endorsed by many of the key leave figures (eg Johnson, Farage, Corbyn). 3/
Instead, they each have their own preferred version of Brexit. In each case, it is vague. Moreover, there is no evidence that it will be pass the necessary threshold - ie be agreed by both the UK Parliament and the EU. 4/
That leaves no deal and revoking A50. A sufficiently determined PM may be able to force a no deal Brexit notwithstanding opposition in Parliament. A sufficiently determined Parliament may be able to force revocation of A50. 5/
Absent that determination, we will remain stuck. None of the possible end points - deal, no deal, and revoke - has sufficient support. 6/
To date, when faced with the impasse, the UK has asked to extend the A50 period, to enable a solution to be found. And the EU has acceded to the UK's request. 7/
Has the extra time (which the UK was of course entreated not to waste) helped? Are we closer to a solution than we were in March? 8/
There will be a short window in which the new Tory PM will have a chance to unblock the impasse. He will very likely fail. And the likely result of that failure is a general election. 9/
The EU would more than likely agree to extend the A50 period to allow for such a 'democratic event'. We can only hope that the new Parliament will be able - with a fresh mandate - finally to make the choice. 10/10
