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I think McGrath has a shot.
McConnell has the worst approval ratings in the country. He will probably win on the basis of partisanship, especially with Trump turnout. But it's not a foregone conclusion and his status as party leader could give him problems that a "generic" Republican might not have.
It's gonna be one of those races where the polling could show a close race, but the fundamentals strongly favor McConnell and McConnell probably wins. But if you're not providing for, say, a 15-20% chance of McGrath winning, your mental and/or statistical model is overconfident.
