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OK, folks, I have a pretty straightforward overview of where I think the Democratic race stands. 53eig.ht/2LMQkZm
The top tier is Biden, Harris and Warren. They're the ones who are both (i) polling fairly well right now and (ii) have the clearest path to maintain/expand their coalition.
Warren's behind the other two in endorsements, so I have her a tick behind them overall, but not by much.
Warren's behind the other two in endorsements, so I have her a tick behind them overall, but not by much.
It's a drop-off to 4th and 5th, which is Bernie & Buttigieg.
Bernie's position (~15% in polls with 100% name ID) is historically a losing one and the more you look under the surface (e.g. IA polls) the worse it gets.
Buttigieg's coalition (white, college edu) may be too narrow.
Bernie's position (~15% in polls with 100% name ID) is historically a losing one and the more you look under the surface (e.g. IA polls) the worse it gets.
Buttigieg's coalition (white, college edu) may be too narrow.
Candidates in the 3rd tier (Booker, Klob, Castro, Beto) might have more ability to build a broad coalition. But not sure there's any particular reason to think they'll get a surge. Booker & Castro had good debates but still overshadowed. Voters like the top 3-5 candidates a LOT.
Also, here's my analogy for Beto's campaign. 
