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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
OK, folks, I have a pretty straightforward overview of where I think the Democratic race stands. 53eig.ht/2LMQkZm
The top tier is Biden, Harris and Warren. They're the ones who are both (i) polling fairly well right now and (ii) have the clearest path to maintain/expand their coalition.

Warren's behind the other two in endorsements, so I have her a tick behind them overall, but not by much.
It's a drop-off to 4th and 5th, which is Bernie & Buttigieg.

Bernie's position (~15% in polls with 100% name ID) is historically a losing one and the more you look under the surface (e.g. IA polls) the worse it gets.

Buttigieg's coalition (white, college edu) may be too narrow.
Candidates in the 3rd tier (Booker, Klob, Castro, Beto) might have more ability to build a broad coalition. But not sure there's any particular reason to think they'll get a surge. Booker & Castro had good debates but still overshadowed. Voters like the top 3-5 candidates a LOT.
Also, here's my analogy for Beto's campaign.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Your hypothesis relies on data that's (i) 8 months old (ii) was collected mostly online (fine but not gold-standard) (iii) involves a lot of statistical extrapolation (iv) is calibrated to 2018 rather than 2020 turnout (v) is based on approval rather than head-to-head matchups.
All of which is… fine… to get a rough approximation. But the real-world margin of error on those estimates is (at least) several points wide, which is much too large to come to many firm conclusions about the tipping point, especially if you're not working probabilistically.
There's also a fairly large volume of polling that shows Biden (and to some extent Bernie) performing quite well vs. Trump in head-to-head matchups in the Midwest. I wouldn't put a ton of stock in that data, either. But it's not just one poll in Ohio. 53eig.ht/2IWBgHX
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
That very long Al Franken story brings up extremely few exculpatory facts about Al Franken's alleged behavior.
If you want to make *this* argument—that there are degrees of misconduct & this didn't rise to the level of warranting resignation—I don't know if I agree but that's honest at least.

Instead, though, Ds defending Franken make these totally incoherent claims about "due process".
Those "due process" arguments look WORSE in light of this story. Despite it presenting the evidence in a fairly sympathetic light for Franken, it doesn't really offer any reason to disbelieve his several accusers, and his own defenses are pretty half-hearted.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I'd probably lean no. I certainly think Trump could win an election where he loses the popular vote by 3 points or even slightly more. That's basically what he did in 2016. (He won WI, the tipping-point state, with ~1 point to spare.) But I'm skeptical that he'd be the favorite.
The reason is that I see this as being a fairly dynamic process. To be honest this is sort of my critique of the @Redistrict/@Nate_Cohn Electoral College analysis; I think they focus on a more static, modal outcome rather than the range of plausible outcomes.
The Obama-era coalition was fairly favorable to Democrats in the Electoral College. Obama would likely have WON an Election in 2008 or 2012 in which the popular vote was very close. This wasn't that long ago.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
HUGE.
#Biden & #Bernie continue to plummet. I wrote last month that #Buttigieg was the natural inheritor of voters divesting of Biden. #Warren is the natural inheritor of the left vote. #Harris, still the most charismatic candidate, has now tripled her Iowa standing since June.
This is the Democratic field. The debates both winnowed the field and reshuffled the deck. Despite massive help from MSM that included two full hours on Chris Cuomo in prime time, much spent attacking Harris and progressives, Biden fails to move his campaign forward.
Sanders has released a couple of videos vomosring himself to FDR, who was president when Sanders was born in 1941. Both Biden and Bernie focusing on the past while Harris and Warren roll out forward-thinking policy almost daily.

This is why the polls are shaking out as they are.
Read 4 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
As I first wrote several weeks ago would happen, the Democratic debates have restructured the polling, putting, as I predicted, @KamalaHarris and @ewarren within striking distance of @JoeBiden.

Biden 22%
Harris 17%
Warren 15%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg 4%

cnn.com/2019/07/01/pol… …
Months of assertions that #Biden was "inevitable" have been eviscerated. Unable to stand up to #Harris at the debates, Biden appeared tired, confused and unprepared, despite having been kept away from major events for weeks by his handlers. Harris has been campaigning daily.
#Warren won the first debate handily, with only @JulianCastro and @CoryBooker offering any other strong moments in the two hour debate.
The new rankings put #Harris and Warren in the lead for most electable and many are already talking about Harris/Warren as the 2020 ticket.
Read 11 tweets
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Peter Daou
@peterdaou
The Democratic field is effectively #Biden, #Warren, #Sanders, #Harris, and #Buttigieg

#DemDebate2
To clarify, I'm going by poll averages over the past few months. I don't think the debates have materially changed the dynamics of the race or altered the top tier.
That said, I think Biden's recent downward drift and Warren's rise will continue.
Read 3 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden has always been a disastrous candidate for women and thus far is performing badly as ever.
Biden's rollout in majority black Philly was small, majority suburban and male.
Biden has zero policy, but much baggage.
Biden is NOT our future.
The future is female.
I know no one who is pro-Biden.
Not my MIL who rolls her eyes over Biden but likes Warren nor a single other family member, friend, colleague or neighbor, whether boomer, gen x or millennial.
Polling has been limited and 67% say they are still looking while Biden's numbers drop.
This long, well-researched piece on Biden by @rtraister is the story of Biden & women. It clarifies why he's not the choice for an electorate that has moved left & younger. The excitement is for the women & younger men. Debates will shift the narrative.
thecut.com/2019/03/joe-bi…
Read 3 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
Dems in March when #Bernie was frontrunner: "We have to accede to his voters' every whim."

Dems in May now #Biden is frontrunner:"Screw everyone who doesn't want Biden."

Dems in June after both are destroyed in debates: "#Harris & #Warren can draw young voters AND beat Trump."
Just saying that in January 2017 I wrote that barring another #Hillary run, the best ticket was #Harris/#Gillibrand or Gillibrand/Harris. From a policy POV, still true, but Harris/,#Warren or Warren/Harris works just as well. Each would obliterate Trump and energize voters.
Make #Gillibrand Sec of Defense (it used to be a civilian post), Booker Sec of Ed, Inslee Sec of Interior, have Buttigieg head a new post for #LGBTQ issues, bring Castro back for HUD, make Williamson the chaplain. Biden can be SoS. Klobuchar as AG.

It's a great Cabinet.
Read 4 tweets

Trending hashtags

#NeverTrump #DemDebate2 #MedievalTwitter #Buttigieg #Chicago #Gillibrand #data #Warren #bitcoin #Harris #nape #Hillary #exvangelicals #Biden #Kavanaugh #WaveCastOH #HillaryClinton #Booker #Philly #Bernie #Rinkeby #Ethereum #Sanders #WaveCast #warren
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