,
25 tweets,
8 min read
Read on Twitter
THE GOOD NEWS
1. They largely get GATT Art24 right. They define GATT Art24 as the WTO rule that allows free trade agreements. They even refer to GATT Art1.
Quibbles: a. it’s only about trade in GOODS, not services. b. You don’t “lower” quotas.
2/24
brexitcentral.com/the-facts-abou…
1. They largely get GATT Art24 right. They define GATT Art24 as the WTO rule that allows free trade agreements. They even refer to GATT Art1.
Quibbles: a. it’s only about trade in GOODS, not services. b. You don’t “lower” quotas.
2/24
brexitcentral.com/the-facts-abou…
2. @DCBMEP is no longer describing GATT Art24 as something to use in an emergency 👇🏾. (He blocked me when I pointed out this was wrong)
Everyone now accepts there has to be a deal. We are not talking about "no deal".
3/24
Everyone now accepts there has to be a deal. We are not talking about "no deal".
3/24
THE BAD NEWS
Hopes dashed.
Hadn’t we binned talk of an “interim” deal under Art24?
@lawyers4britain accept it’s unnecessary.
But the 10-year grace period—only applies with “interim” deals—is still there.
“Legally this could be up to ten years”.
4/24
brexitcentral.com/the-facts-abou…
Hopes dashed.
Hadn’t we binned talk of an “interim” deal under Art24?
@lawyers4britain accept it’s unnecessary.
But the 10-year grace period—only applies with “interim” deals—is still there.
“Legally this could be up to ten years”.
4/24
brexitcentral.com/the-facts-abou…
Reminder: GATT Art24 Interim agreements are cumbersome and none have been notified to the WTO recently even though they have phased-in provisions. You just have one agreement, and then replace it later. No need for “interim”.
5/24
5/24
LOOKING FORWARD TO MORE GOOD NEWS
We really don’t need to be talking about GATT Art24 at all. We should focus on what kind of deal we have in mind.
This is where the article raises some serious questions.
6/24
We really don’t need to be talking about GATT Art24 at all. We should focus on what kind of deal we have in mind.
This is where the article raises some serious questions.
6/24
MORE BAD/QUESTIONABLE NEWS
1. The conclusion: “What [Art24] represents is a Clean Managed Brexit […] it is deliverable by 31st October.”
Art24 can be ANY kind of deal in goods. it can be as messy as they come. Art24 doesn’t represent “clean, managed”. Depends on content.
7/24
1. The conclusion: “What [Art24] represents is a Clean Managed Brexit […] it is deliverable by 31st October.”
Art24 can be ANY kind of deal in goods. it can be as messy as they come. Art24 doesn’t represent “clean, managed”. Depends on content.
7/24
So what is their preferred content?
“Lorand Bartels has helpfully written a one-page FTA properly that is sufficient to allow Article 24 to apply. This is a ‘basic deal’ or a ‘temporary FTA’. But it is entirely manageable and legally sound.”
8/24
brexitcentral.com/the-facts-abou…
“Lorand Bartels has helpfully written a one-page FTA properly that is sufficient to allow Article 24 to apply. This is a ‘basic deal’ or a ‘temporary FTA’. But it is entirely manageable and legally sound.”
8/24
brexitcentral.com/the-facts-abou…
That’s hardly “standstill”. @Lorand_Bartels’s 1-pager was a technical experiment. It only has zero tariffs and basic rules of origin. Nothing else.
Is that good enough for the UK, let alone the EU?
Worse …
9/24
dropbox.com/s/xaesprui8vea…
Is that good enough for the UK, let alone the EU?
Worse …
9/24
dropbox.com/s/xaesprui8vea…
Since the 1-pager excludes product standards/regs (including food safety/animal and plant health), or services, large areas of trade would be disrupted while the UK and EU negotiate a longer-term deal.
How is that a “Clean Managed Brexit”?
10/24
How is that a “Clean Managed Brexit”?
10/24
Their solution: “flotilla of mini-deals”. More to negotiate, more time. (See 18/24)
Is this deliverable by Oct 31?
Two more questions are raised by this claim.
2. Would the EU agree?
It’s already said “no”. Maybe it’s bluffing. Maybe it isn’t.
11/24
reuters.com/article/us-bri…
Is this deliverable by Oct 31?
Two more questions are raised by this claim.
2. Would the EU agree?
It’s already said “no”. Maybe it’s bluffing. Maybe it isn’t.
11/24
reuters.com/article/us-bri…
The article just asserts that they will come to their senses and cave in
12/24
brexitcentral.com/the-facts-abou…
12/24
brexitcentral.com/the-facts-abou…
Then: “In the absence of EU agreement to GATT 24, the UK can unilaterally and universally change its import tariffs, and be open to cutting all tariff rate quotas […] the UK would not be able to control EU import tariff rates.”
What does this mean?
13/24
What does this mean?
13/24
Translation
The UK will just lower/scrap some/all tariffs on imports from everywhere—OK, but disincentive for free trade deals
Tariff quotas?—To stay within its WTO commitments, UK out-of-quota sheepmeat tariffs of >40% must drop to zero. Ditto most farm/dairy products
14/24
The UK will just lower/scrap some/all tariffs on imports from everywhere—OK, but disincentive for free trade deals
Tariff quotas?—To stay within its WTO commitments, UK out-of-quota sheepmeat tariffs of >40% must drop to zero. Ditto most farm/dairy products
14/24
3. Possible before Oct 31?
Not under the terms of the extension of the exit date to Oct 31. So the EU would also need to be persuaded to amend this agreed EU Council decision too. (See data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/X…)
15/24
Not under the terms of the extension of the exit date to Oct 31. So the EU would also need to be persuaded to amend this agreed EU Council decision too. (See data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/X…)
15/24
And if it’s after Oct 31?
16/24
16/24
So, “much easier to deliver by the end of October” is a seriously questionable assumption. And if it’s after Oct 31 and takes time to agree with the EU, then it cannot possibly be a “Clean Managed Brexit”.
17/24
17/24
“GATT 24 is not the only basic deal needing to be done if there is no Withdrawal Agreement. It will need an accompanying flotilla of what we call ‘mini deals’.”
The last thing the EU wants is “a flotilla” of “mini deals”.
See EU-Switzerland relations.
18/24
The last thing the EU wants is “a flotilla” of “mini deals”.
See EU-Switzerland relations.
18/24
“Services will be a part of the future trade deal but will be along the lines of ‘Mutual Recognition’ of standards or ‘enhanced equivalence’, not […] harmonisation or rule-taking.”
So, wait for the future deal.
How long will that take?
Meanwhile, messy unmanaged exit
19/24
So, wait for the future deal.
How long will that take?
Meanwhile, messy unmanaged exit
19/24
And the Irish border?
No problem apparently.
This is not my field but I’d just note that there’s a huge amount of comment that disputes this.
20/24
brexitcentral.com/the-facts-abou…
No problem apparently.
This is not my field but I’d just note that there’s a huge amount of comment that disputes this.
20/24
brexitcentral.com/the-facts-abou…
Here’s just one
21/24
21/24
FINALLY, SOME DETAILS
“GATT Article 24 is not only doable, it is desirable” — yes of course it is. It means having a deal. Better than “no deal”
22/24
“GATT Article 24 is not only doable, it is desirable” — yes of course it is. It means having a deal. Better than “no deal”
22/24
“The WTO hates tariffs” — Wrong.
1. The WTO is its members.
2. They have around 20,000 pages of tariffs in their “schedules” of commitments on goods. Yes, Hong Kong scrapped all its tariffs — but not even Singapore did wto.org/english/res_e/…. Reduce? Yes. Hate? No.
23/24
1. The WTO is its members.
2. They have around 20,000 pages of tariffs in their “schedules” of commitments on goods. Yes, Hong Kong scrapped all its tariffs — but not even Singapore did wto.org/english/res_e/…. Reduce? Yes. Hate? No.
23/24
“So the WTO will not like it if the UK and EU return to imposing £13bn tariffs on EU goods and £5bn on British goods into the EU. It goes against the grain.”
— probably true, although the WTO members would probably not say they don’t “like” this.
24/24 ends
— probably true, although the WTO members would probably not say they don’t “like” this.
24/24 ends
PS. The two authors address their comments to "remainers".
But criticisms don't have to come from remainers.
Here's👇🏾a thread on GATT Art24 for leavers who want a deal, leavers who don't want a deal and remainers.
But criticisms don't have to come from remainers.
Here's👇🏾a thread on GATT Art24 for leavers who want a deal, leavers who don't want a deal and remainers.
