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Jaffer Ali
@Jaffer22915438
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
1) I have always approached business from the asymptote to the middle. At #RWRI, this was called working from the fat tail -> middle. When you are buying media, best to start figuring outfraud and "impression inflation" first.
2) Impression inflation is a cousin 2 fraud. Ever click on content "30 celebrities caught in ..." Each celebrity pops a new slide. What is an ad impression on the 17th side actually worth? And what about ad impressions below the fold? So close to worthless-let's call it 0 value
3) Automatic, programattic ad buying will include these worthless impressions. The entire online media ecosystem is f***ed, which is why you need to create and own your own media. Stay tuned for real world marketing tactics.
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Jaffer Ali
@Jaffer22915438
1) Real World Business & Marketing: What follows is a Tweetstorm that are real life lessons learned the hard way. This is a mini real world entrepreneurial guide. I included links to blog posts when appropriate. Inspired by RWRI & @nntaleb
2) If you are relying on social media platforms to sell your stuff, this is a short term strategy. Ex: FB lets marketers build groups only to charge
them to reach the audience.
3) Do NOT use LTV as a metric to run your business. The future does not resemble the past & the further you kick can of profitability down the road the more at risk you are. Agencies and media owners tout LTV to get you to spend more to acquire a customer. Good 4 them, bad 4 you.
Read 31 tweets
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Jaffer Ali
@Jaffer22915438
1) What do predictions, projections, forecsts, models and extrapolations all have in common? They have at base the *belief* (or hope) that the past or historical data can help us make decisions.
2) These predictions, projections, models, forecasts, and extrapolations alltry to give us a mapto guide is forward. They are BASICALLY different words for the same thing. As Nassim pointed out for it is not good to say, "this is the best we have".
3) Once one comes to grip with the fact that no matter how well these fit PAST DATA, the more you believe in applying these forward to the real world which is changing faster and faster, the morescrewed you will be.
Read 5 tweets
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Jaffer Ali
@Jaffer22915438
1) Someone trying to emulate Donald Trump and his manner will not necessarily be antifragile and most likely will flop. One cannot simply impose a persona to achieve antifragility.
2) I *believe* (and this is still a developing thought) that while antifragility for business is a goal, achieving through prescribed practices will not get you there. The environment is too complex to be reduced to a formula.
3) This is what has been behind some of my tweets lately. Understanding AF is different than achieving it. Understanding judo and reading about it does not mean you will be great on the mat - even if you *know* all the moves.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Trishank Karthik
@trishankkarthik
And now, organically-developed heuristics from #RWRI attendees

Let’s look at some old ones:

“The world is more fat-tailed than you think.”
“Better be convex than smart.”
“Measure extremes better—if you have to measure.”
Read 20 tweets
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
@nntaleb
5th day #RWRI 11
Aerospace
5th day #RWRI 11
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Trishank Karthik
@trishankkarthik
Now @financequant is going into 180 years of market drawdowns, with @nntaleb adding running commentary 🍿 #RWRI
This is why you need to use log returns
Imagine if you filled drawdowns with water...
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Notd
@notd_io
Media that covers #Media #Publishing #Journalism #tech #SocialNetworks is often critical of traffic-driving algorithms, distribution of ad revenue, personal data collection/sale. Yet these writers have the ability to get users to force change. /1 notd.io/notes/56844813…
Most of the abuses that this sector of media is critical about come from internet giants, who pay lip service in response, because those abuses are very profitable, & regulation is unlikely in the US & users not motivated enough to change their usage of networks. /2
US regulation that would help stop the criticized practices is unlikely to help, mainly because Congress isn't qualified to design these regulations, so they would leave it to lobbyists working for the industry to be regulated /3
Read 13 tweets
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
@nntaleb
Today #RWRI 10, we discuss:
How the "calibration" ranking by BS Vendor @juliagalef is not even wrong

1) In real life, you shb be calibrated in payoff space, not in frequency space. Someone right 80% abt Russian Roulette won't survive, option traders can be right ~1%
#ergodicity
2) Which is the idea of #skininthegame as a filter. The ONLY filter.

Verbal predictions do not map to anything real, as they penalize those wrong most of the time in skewed payoffs and favor bureaucrats who optimize in frequency space.

Survival=calibration.
Lookup the story In Fooled by Randomness about the trader who thinks the market is "more likely to go up", yet is very heavily short.
Read 5 tweets
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Rhys is writing a book (14k/75k words). #ICCS2018
@RhysLindmark
1/1 Tweet thread from @NECSI's (New England Complex Systems Institute) annual conference, #ICCS2018.

@stephen_wolfram remembers the founding of modern complexity science in the 80s when his physics toolkit wasn't able to explain certain fluid dynamics.
1/2 @stephen_wolfram luckily had been coding, which had the mindset: create a certain set of primitives and then propagate them to learn about the world.

This same mindset could be used with complex systems: take primitives then propagate them and see what happens.

#ICCS2018
1/3 @stephen_wolfram started exploring certain propagation systems. He found some of them "seemed random" and could not be simplified. Systems like digits of pi and primes numbers.

Instead of searching for pattern, see that the MAIN meta-pattern is randomness.

#ICCS2018
Read 29 tweets

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