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1) What do predictions, projections, forecsts, models and extrapolations all have in common? They have at base the *belief* (or hope) that the past or historical data can help us make decisions.
2) These predictions, projections, models, forecasts, and extrapolations alltry to give us a mapto guide is forward. They are BASICALLY different words for the same thing. As Nassim pointed out for it is not good to say, "this is the best we have".
3) Once one comes to grip with the fact that no matter how well these fit PAST DATA, the more you believe in applying these forward to the real world which is changing faster and faster, the morescrewed you will be.
4) The most robust strategy is to predict, forecast, model, extrapolate all you want but assume you are in a desert nd these maps cannot lead you out of the wilderness. Assume we are lost.
5) With this assumption in business (not measuring the half life of Uranium or tensile strength of steel, spend 10 times the effort reducing fragility and mitigatin the harm from having the wrong map. This is the real world. Forget about making a beautiful map, which is bogus.
