Thread by @Staedtler

I think I know what's going to happen.

The new Tory leader takes over on July 23rd, like you said.

Two days later on June 25th, parliament goes on holiday for the summer

This is now a very interesting date.

Usually parliament would be prorogued at this point. As we've seen, that's just the formal ending of one parliamentary session.

We've had a two year parliament, so what should happen is a formal notice of prorogation is given on June 25th

And this is the thing to look out for.

If the new Tory leader gives a formal notice of prorogation on June 25th, then we know Brexit won't happen.

Because if parliament is prorogued for the summer, as it should be having come to the end of its business, it means a new session can only be started with a Queen's speech.

And that Queen's speech will have no chance of getting through parliament in September. Unless they put a referendum in it.
otherwise the Queen's speech fails and we get a general election, where at least once party offers a new referendum.

I don't want to hear any silly crying and howling.
If Parliament is prorogued on July 25th, it means Brexit is over. The new Queen's speech will see to that.

No screaming, no running around, no howling. Prorogue means a Queen's speech in autumn, and no Brexit.

Prorogue does not mean - and I want to make this absolutely clear - does NOT mean that Parliament is being abolished. It does NOT mean that we're going to be forced out of the European Union while parliament is away.