Thread by @benwikler

🚨THREAD: Trump in Wisconsin TODAY. The tipping-point state. Dem national convention starts here in exactly one year. Trump wants a head start. Our job: build a grassroots juggernaut to stop him. @wisdems have a plan. Time for a #CHEDDARBOMB! RT & donate: wisdems.org/1year

The stakes in WI: Huge.

"The entire election probably comes down to who wins Wisconsin" – @joshtpm
"AZ & WI strike me as the likeliest to be decisive 'tipping point' states" – @Redistrict
The ultimate toss-up state, swinging the electoral college – this @prioritiesUSA analysis

Wisconsin is on a knife's edge.

Trump won here in 2016 with 22,748 votes, out of nearly 3 million. 0.7% margin.

In 2018, Dems won the governorship (yay!) by 29,227 votes. 1.1% margin.

In 2019, GOP won state Supreme Court race by 5,981 votes. 0.5% margin.

It'll be CLOSE.

And here's the thing about Wisconsin: the polls can fool you. The final polling average here in 2016 had Clinton up 6.5%. The final public poll in 2018 had Evers up 5%. And a week out from the Sup Court race this spring, the GOP's guy was down 8 points.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/pr…

Why is Wisconsin so close? It was once a bastion of the progressive movement. But the right has used it as a lab for crushing democracy & cementing power. Smashing unions. Imposing voter suppression laws. Opening floodgates to dark money. Read the book:
smile.amazon.com/Fall-Wisconsin…

By one analysis, Wisconsin's voter ID laws pushed down turnout by 200,000 in 2016—disproportionately African-American & Democratic voters. After Ds won governorship, GOP called a lame-duck session & passed a middle-of-night bill to lock in the suppression.
motherjones.com/politics/2017/…

In 2018, Democrats won 53% of the vote for State Assembly, but GOP got 63/99 seats due to extreme gerrymander. Polling shows broad progressive consensus on health care, schools, clean water, clean government. We're a progressive state in right-wing handcuffs.

So what do we do? We have to beat Trump. We also have to make Wisconsin Trump-proof—and Walker-proof. We have to win in a way that builds enduring power. And that's exactly our plan. Here's how we do it.

First—we fight with FIRE. Fight on issues, Include & Respect all, Empower.

When there's no election coming close, we're organizing continuously on issues to that matter to people in all communities & in every part of the state. Knocking doors on Medicaid expansion. Marching for school funding. Showing what we stand for. And then comes...the Five Fights.

The Five Fights: The battle plan for a blue Wisconsin.
Fight #1: April 7, 2020. Dem presidential primary day—and general election for state Supreme Court & local offices all over WI. Turnout will be high. So, w/ partners, we'll recruit, train, & support 100s of local candidates.

Going in hard on local races changes the game. The right's been doing it for decades. Victory shapes local policy that touches peoples' lives. It builds the bench for higher offices. And it teaches organizers how to fight and win. Victory begets victory. We're gonna do it.

Fight #2: the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee.

How is this a fight? Because it's not just a party. It's not just a TV showcase. It's a chance organize. We'll need thousands of volunteers. We'll recruit 'em—and then we'll train them to organize for the fall election.

Published poli-sci research finds the location of national conventions really does matter—especially for Dems. But it doesn't guarantee victory in a state. Look at PA '16 or NC '12. WI has to be like CO '08: convention & win.

jstor.org/stable/10.1017…
blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2016…

By the way: you can sign up *now* to volunteer at the 2020 convention, or register your interest in working on it or providing services there, here: milwaukee2020.com

Then comes the fall, and Fight #3—the state legislature.

Why focus there? Because if the GOP picks up three seats each in the state assembly & state senate, they'll get veto-overriding supermajorities.

And that means they'd lock in gerrymandered maps until 2032.

No. Nuh-uh.

We're going to work with amazing state leg candidates across the state. We're going to fiercely defend the seats we've got—and go on offense, to push the GOP back on its heels. No lie: these maps are tough. & that's exactly why we've got to make sure they end in next redistrict.

Fight #4. Beating Trump in Wisconsin. And electing a great Democrat to replace him. This is ground zero.

And then there's Fight #5: 2022. That year, we'll have new maps for assembly, state Senate, and Congress. Huge swings possible. Every statewide constitutional officer, from governor on down, is up for reelection. And there's a Senate race... that Scott Walker is eyeing.

We all remember 2008—and then the backlash of 2010. If we elect a Democratic president in 2020, there's a risk of backlash in 2022. So we have to emerge from this election cycle stronger and more energized than ever. So this is not about one candidate. This is a 3-year-plus plan.

That's why this next year, before the convention, is so absolutely critical. We can't wait until we have a nominee to start investing. We have to build *now.* That's why we're building the #CheddarBomb. That's why we need your help: wisdems.org/1year

Okay, so what are we actually doing now that will have an impact later? A ton, but I want to tell you about one spectacular thing: our field organizing operation. It's amazing. The core idea is this: our organizers don't run canvasses. They *build teams.* Here's what that means.

Conventional field organizing often looks like this: a paid organizer calls a list of people who've volunteered before and asks them to show up and knock on some doors. When election ends, everyone goes home. No infrastructure survives.

The team model? It's very different.

At the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, a field organizer's job is to build the capacity of volunteers to organize *themselves.* Sometimes, a team is the county Dem party. Sometimes it's a group in a neighborhood or township who've never done this before.

A successful team grows and grows. Conventional field is like turning on a faucet: you only reach voters while it's turned on, so save your money for the end. The team model is like planting trees—the earlier you start, the bigger the teams can get. Thus, this #cheddarbomb.

There've been teams in parts of WI since the W Bush years. But the model took shape statewide in 08. And in early 2017, my predecessor as WI Dem chair, @laningforwi, relaunched the team model—leading to 250 teams statewide by election day 2018. The impact was thunderous.

Our best estimate is that the WI coordinated campaign, using the team model, knocked 80% more doors in 2018's midterms than the presidential did in 2016. And at half the cost. Huge bang for the buck. The term for it: people power. That's what we're scaling up for 2020.

Here's where you, reading this right now come in. We need your help. There are 25 Dem presidential campaigns right now. By all means, get involved in the primary. But it's time to start building for the general election too. To stop Trump—and the GOP writ large—we can't wait.

We don't know what madness will transpire between now & election day. But we do know, with certainty, that the GOP will go to extreme lengths to hold on to power. And that Wisconsin will matter. So even if you've never even thought of investing in a state party—this is the time.

Wisconsin needs your help. Can we count you in? Can you donate at wisdems.org/1year? Can you share this thread? Can you quote-tweet it with why you're donating? Can you tag people who should see it, and ask them to spread the word?

I'm writing this from Milwaukee on Friday, July 12. Somewhere nearby, Trump and a group of very wealthy people will have dinner tonight—some of them paying $100k per couple for the privilege. A year from tomorrow, the convention begins. A year from Tuesday, we'll have a nominee.

What we do now—the resources we can assemble—will shape what's possible in the year to come. And what we do in that year will define the fight for the general election phase that comes afterwards... which will affect you, me, and every subsequent generation on this planet.

We're going to have to reach deeper, and fight harder, than ever before. We'll have to organize and work together across every community, to unite in the face of a plutocratic cabal bent on dividing us by race, ethnicity, and gender so it can pick our pockets & cement its power.

Let's use these next five days to power the next 365. Your help with the #CheddarBomb right now will make it possible to scale up our team, to deepen our work with county parties to build teams in every corner of the state—and to stop Trump from taking a one-year head start.

If we do this, we'll do more than stop this demagogic kleptocratic disaster from getting reelected. We'll do more than build the Democrats. We'll build our democracy. America's Dairyland is now America's Battleground. Thanks for joining the fight. Let's go!