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@anthonyjwells

@anthonyjwells

People aren’t as good at remembering how they voted as you might think. As @anthonyjwells shows, this matters when some pollsters weight by past vote but have to base that data on how respondents say they voted years after the event.
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…

For instance, YouGov gathered our data on how people voted at the 2017 general election in June-July 2017. We asked a group of those voters the same question in July 2019 – Labour voters are much less likely to remember that that’s how they voted. yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…

Such false recall can have a knock-on effect on current voting intention. As the chart shows, VI weighted by the answer people gave in 2017 shows a small Brexit Party lead, but weighted by the 2019 data (ie the false recall data) shows a small Labour lead yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…

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@literallyjustq

A little thread, which I may come back to, for all those #technophobes who blame rise in #suicide on #socialmedia.

First: legit, what rise?
Second: The actual experts do not agree with you, and your fear-mongering is likely causing more harm than good.

cf. Thomas, K, and Gunnell, D. (2010). Suicide in England and Wales 1861–2007: a time-trends analysis. International Journal of Epidemiology, Volume 39, Issue 6, December 2010, Pages 1464–1475.

So, first the data, from #UK (above) and elsewhere (below).

Clearly if this epidemic was *caused* by a *single* factor it would permeate all societies with social media.

[Suicide Rates for Teens Aged 15–19 Years, by Sex — United States, 1975–2015, #USA]

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Benjamin Kramer

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@britainelects

ケリ@ Dokomiロス

@towaniegaita

Okay I'm gonna make a thread with like a report of what I noticed throughout the day and probably update it in dribs and drabs, a lot of it will be repeating what everyone else has said though lol

So like we went to the opening bit and it was just boring speech after boring speech but then someone noticed that torarai were sitting there like so close to us and I just glanced over and saw them in person and my heart rate went up by like 200%

The intros went on for ages and torarai were practically last so I was fidgeting the whole time waiting for them lmao
But when they went on stage I think they spoke a bit in English? 'thank you for inviting us?' or something like that. It was cute

Read 46 tweets

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