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People aren’t as good at remembering how they voted as you might think. As @anthonyjwells shows, this matters when some pollsters weight by past vote but have to base that data on how respondents say they voted years after the event.…
For instance, YouGov gathered our data on how people voted at the 2017 general election in June-July 2017. We asked a group of those voters the same question in July 2019 – Labour voters are much less likely to remember that that’s how they voted.…
Such false recall can have a knock-on effect on current voting intention. As the chart shows, VI weighted by the answer people gave in 2017 shows a small Brexit Party lead, but weighted by the 2019 data (ie the false recall data) shows a small Labour lead…
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