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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 6 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
If the risks of no-deal Brexit are so small why is it so important that business and government are ready?
If it is so important that the UK is free to make Free Trade Agreements globally why is it not so important that we have one with our largest trade partner?
If the EU will cave in on their red lines in an international agreement why aren't they internationally known as a soft touch?
If it is easy to avoid border infrastructure between neighbouring countries why has this only been done between EU member states?
If a "clean Brexit" is essential to escape EU regulations where is the list of regulations that we will immediately repeal on exit?
Another one... if the EU will do everything we want when we're leaving why didn't they do what we wanted when we were members?

(and keep the suggestions coming. the logic underpinning no-deal is so flawed it should be exposed)
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
This debate rather passed me by, and I suspect it will rather pass most MPs by, but there are some critical questions, none more than 'why FTAs with US, Australia, New Zealand'? No convincing rationale has ever been offered, given these are already relatively open economies.
Second fundamental trade question, why do we want trade agreements? What are our particular exporting sectors, or rather, what will they be in the years to come, and what barriers that can be addressed do we seek to remove?
Third question, what do we have to offer to trade agreement partners in exchange for what we want? Do we want to retain some high tariffs so they can be bargained away, or not? Otherwise we are pretty open as an economy except in terms of visas. Is that our big offer?
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Many words will be written and spoken about Brexit and Boris Johnson but there's only one fundamental choice - accept the conditions that come with a relationship with the EU, or go for a long term no-deal position, likely to mean early general election of uncertain outcome
You can negotiate the EU's conditions a bit. But there's no choice where we get everything we want, with no conditions. GATT24 isn't going to save you, or any WTO agreements, or calling the Irish border a fictional problem, or whatever the invention of the day is
No-deal is also not a sustainable end state, as a trading nation we will need deals with our nearest trading partners, with their conditions, and they will happen with a change of Government. So the real choice we're facing is accept an EU deal comes with conditions now or later
Read 6 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Good and realistic reading. Yet again looks like a Liam Fox valedictory, the detail doesn't seem to chime with the Johnson 'believe harder' agenda. And like so much trade policy too much focus on Free Trade Agreements not enough on the other tools available
Well this is awkward, but perhaps if the relevant members of Congress believe harder then a UK-US trade deal can still happen (more likely incidentally is a 'trade' deal which is about cooperation rather than tariff removal etc)
Anyway, thoughts at this time with the officials who have to write the Brexit briefing notes for new Ministers, balancing being helpful, with also having to explain a few realities. Treasury must be particularly looking forward to this given some suggestions of Ministers there
Read 3 tweets

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