Thread by @Staedtler

We had this argument three years ago. You insisted that you can't possibly predict anything in politics.
I decided to see if that was true or just a kind of media mythology built from laziness.

And from what I could see, if the Tories pursued Brexit they would hit a dead end because what they wanted was to turn Brexit into a treaty renegotiation, which Europe would never allow.

And everything else I predicted was just a consequence of that.
Theresa May's election because she knew she wouldn't get Brexit through, and Corbyn looked like such a push over.

The fact she lost her majority because she had completely misunderstood why people had voted the way they did.
And then the fact she would have to resign when she finally learned how to count.

All of this was predictable. None of these things require any sort of magic.
So why has the media got such a mysticism when it comes to political events? Why do they think they can't predict anything?

It's because the media don't understand where unpredictability begins and ends. Things don't become unpredictable just because they're in the future.
Events are only unpredictable if they involve an unpredictable person.

Terrorism is unpredictable, things like that, because there is nothing to guide or govern the behaviour of terrorists. Or accident is unpredictable.

But ordinary political affairs are not unpredictable. Especially not something as flat and one dimensional as Brexit.
We know everything about Brexit. We know that the Tories have painted themselves into such a corner they are asking for something Europe can't give.

The European Union is a legal system. All the other cultural stuff is extra. At root it is a legal system.
You can be within that legal system, or you can be without.

But what you can't do, and what Brexit has been trying to do for the last three years, is be both inside and outside at the same time.

That's what being a member means. It means sharing the same legal jurisdiction with others.

The Tories want to be outside the legal order of the European Union, thus free of its jurisdiction . . .

while at the same time being treated as though we are still in it.

It was obvious that Europe would never, could never accept that. The world doesn't work like that.
Law is all about bound obligation, not nudges and winks and we'll see you right, you can trust me.

You asked for something ridiculous, and Europe said no. That was only unpredictable if you don't understand the planet you live on.

After that it was easy. Theresa May was never going to get what she asked for, and whatever she got would be refused by parliament, her own party, everyone.
And when she could not achieve her one committed policy, she would resign.

It was all predictable.

And events from now on are equally predictable.
We know Boris Johnson hasn't got a majority, we know he won't be able to pass a Queen's speech or a budget, without which you haven't got a government. So a general election.

In this general election we know that the Liberal Democrats are going to offer a second referendum.
Labour and Corbyn are going to offer a Brexit renegotiation.

And the Tories, what?

The Tories can't claim to renegotiate or they would have already done it. So they have to offer either Brexit with no deal, or remain.

They're going to spend all summer thinking about that.

There is only one answer. Oh, they can spend two months tearing their hair out and crawling up the walls looking for another. But there isn't one.

They know they can't fight an election with a no deal Brexit because they know people might be stupid enough to vote for it, and if they won they could never implement it.

So what do they do, this election they can't avoid, and seems they can't possibly win?

They call a general election and offer another referendum.

Two months, he's got. We'll hear all sorts of things going round and round in circles. Going for no deal. Going to abolish parliament. going to crown himself emperor.
The English news media in its fevers.

Anyway, he's not going to do any of those things. All he's going to do is hold a general election and offer another referendum in his manifesto.

Anyway, it's either that or lose to Corbyn