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THREAD Joint patrol of Chinese and Russian strategic bombers last week is a milestone in deepening military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing. It's more consequential than many people think. Managing ensuing risks will require a lot of smart thinking & diplomacy 1/ 
2/ A good summary of July 23 incident that involved 2 🇷🇺Tu-95 bombers, 2 🇨🇳 H-6 bombers, a 🇷🇺 A-50 control aircraft & 🇨🇳 KJ-2000 aircraft flying through ROK's self-proclaimed AIDZ, and warning shots by 🇰🇷 fighter jets can be found in this @Reuters account reuters.com/article/us-sou…
3/ The incident over Dokdo islands (Takkeshima in Japanese) claimed by both Seoul and Tokyo is not as important itself as a fact that this is the first Sino-Russian air patrol in Asia-Pacific, and this type of joint military actions will continue.
4/ Joint air patrols come as a significant milestone in military relationship between two great powers. These ties have grown thicker over the last decade, and now include annual land and naval drills, sales of 🇷🇺 advanced weapons to 🇨🇳, joint development of arms etc.
5/ Air patrols build on larger than life Vostok-2018 drill that signaled a sea change in the way the Kremlin sees China's military rise, as I explain in this @ForeignAffairs article foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
6/ Deepening of Sino-Russian security ties will be captured in a new agreement on military cooperation. On July 18 @MedvedevRussiaE has ordered 🇷🇺MinDef to start negotiations with 🇨🇳 counterparts to sign a new treaty that will replace the 1993 agreement publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/…
7/ It's not clear how comprehensive the new document will be, but as Vasily Kashin argues in his piece for @CarnegieRussia, joint 🇨🇳🇷🇺 air patrols will be just one of many new areas covered by the document carnegie.ru/commentary/795…
8/ According to Kashin, Russia has deliberately chosen strategic nuclear bombers as a mean to demonstrate its comeback as a military player in Asia - the Russian Pacific fleet is still too crummy for that
9/ Beyond air patrols and large scale drills modeled on Vostok-2018, the new treaty will likely include provisions for 🇷🇺🇨🇳 coordination on missile-defense systems in Asia. Third joint computer simulation will take place this year, and a live-fire exercise is in the works
10/ Another area will be cooperation on early warning systems, and Russia may share some of its advanced technologies with China. This move is perhaps the most consequential as it will boost the potency of 🇨🇳 nuclear deterrent
11/ We should expect more cooperation in cyber domain too. We know from this @ForeignPolicy account that 🇨🇳 has shared some sensitive cyber counterintelligence data with 🇷🇺 before, so joint defensive & even offensive capabilities are plausible foreignpolicy.com/2018/08/15/bot…
12/ In fact, Russia and China are building foundations for a much deeper security partnership. It's driven by pragmatic considerations on both sides, and by growing rivalry with the U.S. that under @realDonaldTrump started to frame 🇷🇺&🇨🇳 together in its strategic documents
13/ What drives the Kremlin's thinking? Russia wants to be visible as a security player in Asia, and it can do so only in tandem with China. As a commercial upside of this partnership, Moscow expects to increase its arms sales to Beijing following deals on S-400 and Su-35
14/ Deeper cooperation on air&missile defense, in Moscow's view, could lead to 🇨🇳 purchasing more 🇷🇺 hardware, and it has already offered another batch of Su-35 tass.com/defense/1065789
15/ By providing China military assets that it needs sooner rather than later amid growing confrontation with the U.S. and its allies, Moscow also signals to China that it trusts its giant neighbor and is ready for more 🇨🇳 investments&loans, particularly for Putin's friends
16/ These moves may come at the expense of Moscow's efforts to boost ties with Japan, ROK, India and ASEAN as a counterbalance to growing China's clout in Russian foreign policy, but Moscow thinks it has no choice - returns on investment in ties with 🇨🇳 are bigger and quicker
17/ Why is Russia not afraid to boost military capabilities of a giant, assertive neighbor? This goes back to risk assessment done by the Kremlin in 2014, that suggests that China is not a security threat to Russia. See more in my take for @SCMPNews scmp.com/comment/insigh…
18/ The most important reason is the Kremlin's belief that China is not seeking regime change in Russia, unlike 🇺🇸, and given similarities in political regimes in 🇨🇳🇷🇺, growing economic interdependence, and a common foe, Moscow and Beijing will find ways to manage differences
19/ Russia and China are not forming an alliance: both want to maintain autonomy, and don't want to be dragged into conflicts when the national interests don't align in places like Ukraine or SCS. But even without an article 5, 🇷🇺🇨🇳 entente is a challenge for U.S. and its allies
20/ US response to🇷🇺🇨🇳 camaraderie will be crucial to international peace. This is why it's so important to understand the driving factors of this partnership, and distinguish between pragmatic entente and an ideological illiberal alliance, which Sino-Russian partnership is not
21/ Attempts to drive a wedge between 🇷🇺🇨🇳 and play a reverse Kissinger will yield nothing. Unlike in 1970s, reasons for confrontation are not there, turning its back on 🇨🇳 is a strategic nightmare for 🇷🇺 even if @navalny is in the Kremlin, and trust between 🇷🇺&🇺🇸 is nonexistent
22/ This is why the U.S. can't fix Sino-Russian rapprochement, but it can try to manage its consequences and brace for an new period of great powers competition. Key task is to develop frameworks that will preclude incidents&miscalculations from escalating into wars
23/ Update of U.S.-Soviet mechanisms like the 1972 Incidents at Sea agreement could be a good start, and joint norms in cyber domain, something that @CarnegieEndow colleagues are working on, should be prioritized
24/ The big question is whether the U.S. is still capable to demonstrate leadership in diplomacy, and engage leaders in Beijing and Moscow that don't want to go down the path that led to the Cuban missiles crisis. However, most steps by @realDonaldTrump point otherwise. END
