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Quick Liverpool thread:
I think City are worthy favourites, and Liverpool have to basically be as good again AND hope to get a positive kick upwards to have any chance. That's outside their control in ways, with potential injuries, variance main factors BUT:
I think City are worthy favourites, and Liverpool have to basically be as good again AND hope to get a positive kick upwards to have any chance. That's outside their control in ways, with potential injuries, variance main factors BUT:
They have been an ~8 shots against team now for AGES and the thing they improved last season was consistency. How did they win so many games against the bottom 14 (literally 25-3-0)? DEFENCE.
Here's xGFor/Against match by match season to season. Note 2018-19 didn't have a really bad defensive game. Liverpool kept their lesser opponents down to a) few shots and b) low quality shots. The attack was a little better too (note games with 2.5+ xGF). 
It'll be tough to control defence so reliably against their direct rivals in 2019-20, but they managed it alright in 2018-19: they have the blueprint right here. Again literally no "bad" defensive games compared to the season before:
Thing is, Man City gave up 6 shots a game last season (insanely good rate) but Liverpool's best chance again this year is to try and keep the shot volume down (as usual) and hope to repeat on the shot quality (low in 2018-19, harder to control). Then they've a chance.
