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When I've asked people who are well-informed about ag-tech, they've generally said that the costs of electricity are way too high for indoor farms to be practical.
However, "when can stacked agriculture be price-competitive with conventional agriculture" is a different question than "when can the price of an automated self-sufficient food source be in reach of a household" because people might pay a premium to not have to work a normal job.
The cutoff for ordinary people being able to be autarkists is something like "when can the cost (in materials, equipment, etc, in net present value) of an automated life-support system, anywhere in the world, be within an order of magnitude of a down payment on a house?"
If you have to pay ongoing costs out of the revenue of your farm, you're not an autarkist, you're just a farmer. And then you have to compete on the market with professional farmers. That's not "not having to work for a living".
The other comparison point is with extreme saving/early retirement. Going to live on an automated farm is a big lifestyle change; the first people to switch will be people who *already* are willing to make extreme lifestyle changes in order to not have to work for wages.
Mr. Money Moustache supports a family of three in rural Colorado for $30,000 a year. He says you have to save up abut $1M to be able to quit working for pay and live like he does. mrmoneymustache.com/2012/06/01/rai…
If you can't get the *total* upfront costs of running a household autarky to be less than $1M, or provide a lifestyle that's nicer or less labor-intensive than the Money Mustaches', then autarky is less practical than just saving a lot and retiring early to a small town.
"But most people can't afford to save $1M!"....exactly. If you want fully-automated-luxury-autarky to be available to all, it needs to be *more* affordable than frugal early retirement, not less so. $1M is an upper bound; you'd have to do much *better* to get mass adoption.
What you need is for the cost of the tools/equipment/materials to produce food, water, and power, plus the land in a much more remote location, to be cheaper than groceries/electric bill/gasoline plus the cost of a house within driving distance of stores.
I don't know the current costs of automated farming and electricity generation well enough to know how close we are to this; I welcome other people with figures. (@perrymetzger?)
@perrymetzger My suspicion, however, is that automated farming driven by renewable energy will be practical for agriculture corporations before it's practical for household autarkists. (Just as computers were worth investing in for companies before they were cost-effective for individuals.)
@perrymetzger If you want to expand autarky now, here's an idea: build apps that help with the intimidating cognitive work required to be frugal enough for early retirement.
@perrymetzger Frugality takes a lot more thinking and planning than spending. Budgeting, yes, but also scheduling (because you're doing a lot of chores/errands yourself instead of paying for convenience), planning (because buying in bulk or on sale), and learning skills (like cooking)
@perrymetzger This type of cognitive load is exactly what apps can help with. "Gosh I should learn to (cook, drive, repair my home, play an instrument) but when will I have the time?" is a question a scheduling app should be able to answer!
