Thread: no deal means
* port of Dover collapses on day 1
* supermarkets in Cornwall and Scotland running out of food in a couple of days
* hospitals running out of food in 2 weeks
* planes grounded
* barges with energy generators to keep lights on in N Ireland
* food riots 1/
* port of Dover collapses on day 1
* supermarkets in Cornwall and Scotland running out of food in a couple of days
* hospitals running out of food in 2 weeks
* planes grounded
* barges with energy generators to keep lights on in N Ireland
* food riots 1/
This is not even the worst government scenario (which is termed "Armageddon") this is the second worst scenario.
These are the government's own projections leaked to Sunday times.
Compare this to a bad deal. 2/
These are the government's own projections leaked to Sunday times.
Compare this to a bad deal. 2/
A bad deal might mean
* Inability of UK to strike its own free trade agreements
* Reduced market access, particularly for services
* Billions in lost tax revenue and lost GDP due to poor growth
* Stagnation, inflation, possibly recession.
It's likely we're headed this way. 3/
* Inability of UK to strike its own free trade agreements
* Reduced market access, particularly for services
* Billions in lost tax revenue and lost GDP due to poor growth
* Stagnation, inflation, possibly recession.
It's likely we're headed this way. 3/
But on the plus side, we still get to eat, the planes will still fly, we won't run out of electricity and food, so yay?
I think people answered this way because "bad deal" sounds intrinsically bad and they have no idea what it would feel like to have a no-deal scenario 4/
I think people answered this way because "bad deal" sounds intrinsically bad and they have no idea what it would feel like to have a no-deal scenario 4/
These opinion polls again reveal what a complex issue Brexit is. I'm not saying will of the people doesn't matter. Otherwise, what would the point be of a democracy. But to know the will of the people, you need well informed people 5/
Switzerland understands this and so does its best to inform its people as best it can for referendums. Referendums are the most direct expression of will of the people, and so if well organized can be good democratic exercise. But there are risks and those risks are: 6/
* The referendum becomes about something that it isn't (e.g., "Are you happy with how things are going"?)
* The referendum becomes too much tied to identity and not enough to the decision at hand
* The people aren't well informed enough to make a decision 7/
* The referendum becomes too much tied to identity and not enough to the decision at hand
* The people aren't well informed enough to make a decision 7/
Obviously (responding to @LapGongLeong earlier here) well informed is a matter of degree. Here it did seem, and still seems today, that people voted for a Brexit that is undeliverable. Any Brexit would require hard economic decisions.
