Thread by @SethAbramson

I feel for anyone who has to work mandatory overtime, let alone five overtimes in a week. But let's also be clear that the most important (and endangered) federal inmate in the U.S. didn't kill himself without interruption from the Bureau of Prisons because of overtime policies.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1160657526855262209

1/ There had to be *multiple* systemic failures for this to occur—for starters—but even *that* doesn't explain how this happened. Systemic failures arise randomly across cases and almost *never* in the cases everyone is *watching*. So these early overtime stories are distracting.

2/ Were the guards overworked? Yes. But was this the most important prisoner they'd ever overseen? Almost certainly. Did they know he was a danger to himself and that powerful men wanted him dead? Almost certainly. Was checking on him just a matter of walking down a hallway? Yes.

3/ As I said yesterday, I have *no* theory on what the hell happened here. But I know from having worked in criminal investigation that even if (as is 99.9%+ likely) this was a suicide by Epstein's own hand, there is a *lot* of potential malfeasance that needs to be investigated.

4/ Questions any investigator would ask, and these investigators will ask: was anyone bribed to look the other way, not do their job, or not follow protocol? Did any animus toward Epstein guide anyone's actions? Had Epstein received threats or inducements from outside the prison?

5/ Reporting establishes Epstein's difficulty adjusting to pre-trial detention—which makes the decision to take him off suicide watch *so much more stunning*, as reports are at once establishing that he was a grave risk for suicide *and* was taken off suicide watch (and *early*).

6/ It feels like, in leaking information to convince us (not that we should need such convincing) that Epstein really *did* kill himself, federal officials are *also* establishing that in the most high-profile, watched case in the system, everyone deviated *wildly* from protocol.

7/ Just so, in leaking information to convince us—not that we should need such convincing—that Epstein's old cellmate did *not* try to kill him, federal officials are *also* establishing that they had *no* reason to breach safety protocols and keep Epstein from having a cellmate.

8/ Investigators will be asking whether Epstein had a history of trying to bribe guards or administrators either this year or back in the 2000s. They will likely even look at whether his defense attorneys acted inappropriately in advocating for better conditions for their client.

9/ No conspiracy is required for this to be a scandal. Imagine—random hypothetical here—a pro-Trump guard thought Epstein could bring down Trump, and knew from Trump's tweets that Trump wants nothing to do with Epstein now. Might he know Epstein was suicidal but not check on him?

10/ Another random hypothetical: what if powerful people were lobbying (mind you, not bribing, just lobbying) prison administrators to give Epstein more freedom? That would be a *massive* scandal, now that that additional, protocol-breaching freedom has directly led to his death.

11/ Another hypothetical (again, random things the FBI must consider): what if Epstein was receiving—via a third-party interlocutor—outside threats of harm or inducements to end his own life? Many people would commit suicide to save someone they care about or avoid a worse death.

12/ Many bases for scandal couldn't *possibly* be *further* from any conspiracy—but would still shock America: e.g., what if no one threatened Epstein but he knew that the information he had about powerful men was so damaging it scared him to the point of emotional deterioration?

13/ In view of all these (and other) angles the FBI must consider—along with mundane queries about statements Epstein might have made to people other than his attorneys (e.g., guards or others)—the idea that we're talking about overtime policies and guards being tired is... wild.

14/ Look at it this way (and this why I think people are having a hard time discussing the Epstein case):

CHANCES EPSTEIN'S DEATH WAS (figures here are made up, just to make a point):

Homicide: ~0%
The Result of a Conspiracy: ~2%
The Result of Guard Animus: ~20%
A Scandal: 98%+

15/ What the media got wrong about Epstein's death is that the *near-certainty* Epstein's death is a huge scandal was—every time regular folks discussed it—treated as *equivalent* to discussing his death as the result of a supposed *conspiracy*: a *totally* different ball of wax.

UPSHOT/ Don't be cowed by bad media coverage of Epstein's death. The fact that there's almost no chance anyone killed him and that there's little chance there was a conspiracy does *nothing* to change that this is a huge scandal involving a Trump friend who could have harmed him.

PS/ The worst thing media did was conflate two things: the *lunacy* of the evidence-free "the Clintons had him killed" nonsense—which Trump retweeted—and the simple fact that Epstein stood, quite possibly, to harm Trump and it was Trump's DOJ that acted in a way that let him die.

PS2/ People are asking me about the NEW YORK POST report quoting someone saying Barr visited MCC after Epstein's July suicide attempt. I think it's OK to say the AG must clarify whether he ever visited MCC without saying we *think* he did. It's a question to be asked—that's all.