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One small note of non-panic over bond yields: the 10-year has fallen in half, but it's still a bit higher than it was in much of 2016, when it didn't presage recession. The reason we have a yield curve inversion is that the Fed raised short-term rates 1/
That now looks like a clear mistake — partly bc the Fed misjudged the labor market, partly bc it gave too much credence to stimulus from tax cut. But I think this story makes the yield curve inversion less ominous than it might otherwise seem 2/
Put it this way: one story is that we've been in secular stagnation all along, and the only thing that really changed was a temporary bout of irrational exuberance at the Fed 3/
