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Manufacturing is very cyclical, so this doesn't mean a recession — but it does suggest a continuing slowdown 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The GDP trackers will weigh in with more sophisticated estimates, but a quick and dirty look at the data since 1990 says that slightly contracting manufacturing probably means GDP growth significantly under 2% 2/ 
Since everything is political: while not a recession, growth that slow would almost certainly be enough to sink Trump, given his underlying unpopularity 3/
