Thread by @MacroTechnicals

MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly Recap wk33 as of 16Aug19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n

• huge Yo-Yo but RiskOff week
• Tariff/Yldcurve/R-word headline sentiment
• stocks closed weak, bonds hot
• ZEW weak
• US permits better
• Mexico cut rates, Norges unch
• NZ PMI 48.2

2/n before I continue... YIELDCURVE INVERTED DID YOU KNOW ?????

3/n update Global Markets YTD as of wk33

• but this week was a YoYo of rare :

• VIX 18/22/18/24/18
• DOW 1200 points range
• NDX -3%/+3.5%/-5%/+3%
• UB and BUXL 11/12 points range
• Crude +7%/-7%/+2%
• Silver +4%/-5%/+5%-2%

on RiskOnOff headlines Trump/China/YldCurve

4/n update Momentum/Trend/Exhaustion scores wk33

5/n update Global 10Y govvies heatmap

• flight to bonds continued massively

6/n update wk33 Global 2Y 10Y curve

• massive bull flattening continued and as I keep saying for length end: it is the re-steepening everyone should be worry

• Mexico central bank joined the rate cut party

7/n update on US2Y , crushing further away from FF target and FOMC has a lot to catch up (down) now

8/n US swap curves which I keep posting throughout the year ...collapsed to new lows

9/n here a visual why Trump wants the same conditions (ZIRP + QE) like his predecessor (yeah, it was of course due to the FED)

10/n UB Ultrabond went to the moon this week

11/n so did BUXL Germany 30Y

• 2 days in a row 6 points intraday Yo Yo range

• Spiegel article about possible government infrastructure spending (more new debt) as Germany falls potentially into recession caused a major hiccup by Friday tho...

12/n it has been indeed a very volatile 2-way week , here is VIX status-quo

• closed still at elevated 18+
• curve as of Friday contango/backwardation even this is not a normal curve

13/n before we leave the rates view, here a snapshot of the 100Y bond "battle" Austria vs Argentina = two tales of 2117 bond risk

14/n US Macro: permits came "strong" +8% M/M, but is actually "only" +1.5% Y/Y ... at this stage it shouldn't be too much of a surprise as UE rate is still 3.7%,wages go up, and benchmark rates for mortgages crushed.

if the cycle is near end,of course this could change,let's see

15/n US (and European) Creditspreads are still holding up so far and are near as pessimistic as yields and yieldcurves reflecting... lag ?

16/n "tongue-in-cheek" MRI MacroRiskIndicator dropped from 80.7 to 78.9 after 7M low flash UoM consumer confidence (flatter yldcurve actually improves this "cycle-model", hence a re-steepening is needed to let this index drop further

17/n with this , here the US dashboard as of wk33 = permits better (with lower mortgage rates at full time employment), yet...consumer sentiment falls to 7M low

18/n have to say, given the bond "talk", deteriorating macro environment, and the constant yo-yo-ing with China tariff uncertainty, SPX is very strong YTD vs historical averages... (yeah, seasonality weakness is in effect)

19/n and btw - DAX started to "tank" with seasonality and super weak PMI data, yet, high vs historical averages and obviously as so many other indices, highly correlated to "the one and only" (SPX)

20/n oh, there was the not <that> important, but nevertheless noticable NZ PMI drop to 48.2 (51.3) to 83M low

cycles are not so well defined like ISM, however, new orders 48.9 79M low and employment confidence 42.6 (3rd month <50) and lowest sine Jun2009

RBNZ $NZDUSD

21/n changing subject in memory

Billy: “Dude, there you are, good to see you again. Going for a ride?”

Wyatt (Captain America): “let’s go, man...”

#RIP

22/n that's it for now, enjoy the rest of the Sunday

23/end @threadreaderapp unroll