Thread by @MacroTechnicals

MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly Recap wk35 as of 30Aug19 - thread 1/n

• RiskON (no DJT tariff tweet?)
• Stocks positive
• US stocks still stuck in range w/ elevated VIX level
• CDS indices tighter (except EM)
• EoM window-dressing
• IFO, UoM, NZ ANZ - all weaker

2/n August performances Global Assets

• SPX 0, but volatile indeed
• stocks mostly weaker
• sectors Gold/Silver miners top, Energy/Copper miners neg
• monster rally in most global bonds
• first Gold, then Silver, now Platinum catching up

3/n YTD comparison

4/n as always - the overview WoW / MoM / YTD/ YoY as of end August wk35

5/n FX matrix end of August

6/n 10Y Global Govt yield heatmap ... yet another run into bonds on global growth uncertainty and disinflation

7/n global 2y 10y curve fx comp wk35 update

8/n update on Momentum / Trends / Exhaustion scores as of wk35

9/n update on Credit Default Swap Indices... one of the few exceptions (compared to yields, yieldcurves, M.PMIs) NOT reflecting stress/recession/massive global slowdown concerns

10/n and US NA IG CDS index YoY is still far away from SPX YoY ...

11/n US stock market breadth NYA

rangebound, but interestingly Advanced/Decline cumulative made new high.

12/n SPX still stuck in a wide trading range with obviously then still elevated VIX ... macro / tariff / business confidence uncertainty = range trading

13/n as seen in historical VIX & distribution ... still wider range expected

14/n longer term history shows there tends to be a elevated VIX = seasonality Aug-Oct anyway. perhaps hard BREXIT or another US China Tariff tweet , Italy surprise, North Korea, nah, that's all predictable parameters by now... something else

15/n US swap curves 2s5s and 2s10s yet making new lows. Just another update here as every week. Waiting for the long anticipated RE-steepening signal.

16/n US inflation expectations vs 10Y ... too early to say if 1Y1Y and 5Y5Y rebound, but 10Y yields on a YoY basis has gone a huge way now. Trend is intact though, bonds just looks o/b

17/n what else last week ? surveys:

US Chicago PMI came better , and as mentioned sometimes, regionals tend to be more volatile, and here is the evidence again. Next week ISM

18/n Uni of Michigan Consumer Confidence however came weaker... and seems to have rolled over now.

If this continues, we could assume the unemployment rate could roll over (up) too soon as this is a lagging but important indicator.

19/n Japan had yet another worsening confidence survey too = global slowdown continues

20/n New Zealand ANZ business confidence shrank to -52.3 = tends to be volatile, but this is the lowest reading since April 2008.

#RBNZ already surprised the market by -50bp, more to come I suppose... $NZD

21/n European Business / Consumer Confidence survey came out last week

...what is NOT surprising... after horrendous Manufacturing slump, now comes the Services sector... (second row deep red now)

22/n ESI EuroArea

Services Confidence now 50M low, Construction 20M low

23/n ESI Aug Europe "big4"

• Germany Services 54M low, Consumer Confidence 72M low

• Italy Services 55M low

• Good news: Spain Manufacturing 16M high

24/n ESI Greece & Turkey one of the positive highlights

• Greece Services 11+ Y high, Consumer confidence almost 19Y high. ESI at 108.4, nearly 12Y high

• Turkey ESI, Manufacturing sector, Service sector, Retail sector confidence 1Y high

25/n ESI UK

• Retail confidence collapsed to 10.5 year low

26/n the overall weighted ESI employment confidence in the Euro-area has stabilised , although Services & Retail making new multi year lows.

The unofficial unemployment rate hovers at 7.5% since 3months...and I guess it may has bottomed (= in this chart "peaked")

27/n IFO is part of the German ESI, previously I tweeted a 2point drop in the ESI...to my surprise nada ! 100.6 +0.4 ... anyways, this ain't bullish either.

28/n GEEZ #Dorian2019 scary. hope everyone will be ok 👌

29/ last but not least... AOC of course deleted her ridiculous tweet. But someone fixed it.

30/end I leave it here... charts coming from the TA experts en masse,

wishing you a great rest of the Sunday. And for the US/CA folks, happy labour day.

Next week PMI/ISM/NFP week

Austria (47.9) and China (NBS 49.5) leading the way.

31/x @threadreaderapp unroll pls