Thread by @MacroTechnicals

1/5 mini thread big macro picture vs short term headline risk

it has been plastered all over any media outlet by now, but here again visualised : the last 3 mini cycles 2014/2019 where (global) bonds witnessed a huge rally, yields plunged and actually ISM "lagged" and caught up

2/5 ...but in the short term picture , as we all know, it becomes headline risk sentiment , e.g. FED presser, Trump tweets, tariff talks (the 234th time), China retaliation, HK chaos, hard Brexit odds... etc

here SPX, NDX, DOW trading caught up in range trading, now got lifted

3/5 ...and the headline risk translates directly into e.g. AUDJPY FX pair (China/commodity driven vs save haven) ...and is mirrored by many other assets...here e.g. Hongkong HSI...which got a bid with the recent announced withdrawal of the infamous bill...

but look at this chart

4/5 ...and same headline risk and sentiment AUDJPY vs bonds or here e.g. US30Y

so, if you look at the bigger picture previously (vs ISM), vs this 4h chart, the short term view is currently RiskON (trade talks again, HK, hard Brexit odd reduced, whatever...many "excuses")

5/5 ... here short term picture with GBPJPY pair... Boris hard BREXIT do or die odd seems off , ergo GBP is better bid, and JPY as save haven part is also off due to HK, tariff talks (yeah, again), whatever you chose.

= ST very technical

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