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Okay so while all attention is on #Dorian, let's do a quick tour of the rest of the NATL tropics currently, because there are some other systems to talk about.
There is a weak llvl circ. n/ Cuba W of Dorian. It should move into the GoM where it has a chance to organize further.
There is a weak llvl circ. n/ Cuba W of Dorian. It should move into the GoM where it has a chance to organize further.
Next up is an African Easterly Wave that just emerged off the coast. The model guidance has been somewhat optimistic on this wave developing over the next 5-7 days, so worth keeping an eye on it. Aside from the Cape Verde islands, no threat to land.
Let's continue. There is yet another wave out in the middle of the NATL basin. Its battling some fairly strong westerly shear currently, but some models suggest it will get into a more favorable environment as it moves off to the northwest. #Bermuda should keep an eye on it.
Last but not least... there is yet another wave further east behind the one just off Africa that a lot of the guidance (especially the ECMWF) has been bullish on developing.
Still 4 days from emerging off the African coast, so plenty of time to watch this one.
Still 4 days from emerging off the African coast, so plenty of time to watch this one.
And of course the #ECMWF appears to have at least some signature of each of these features in its latest 5 day forecast. Here they all are annotated in the order I listed them on this thread.
Its peak season folks! The NATL has been awoken!
Its peak season folks! The NATL has been awoken!
