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There is one *central* point on the election date
If election is *before* 17 Oct European Council (e.g. 14 Oct as suggested), Tories will claim during election campaign a Deal is still possible - because they can then win an election, go to Brussels, get the Deal
If election is *before* 17 Oct European Council (e.g. 14 Oct as suggested), Tories will claim during election campaign a Deal is still possible - because they can then win an election, go to Brussels, get the Deal
If election is *on or after* 17 Oct, no negotiation can happen, so only No Deal is even plausibly viable by 31 Oct
The Tories do not want to go into a General Election campaign with No Deal as their only option
The Tories do not want to go into a General Election campaign with No Deal as their only option
Were the Tories to have No Deal as the only option, opposition parties would have a field day
"Vote for stability with us rather than the chaos of No Deal with the Tories"
Yellowhammer basically does the messaging for the opposition
"Vote for stability with us rather than the chaos of No Deal with the Tories"
Yellowhammer basically does the messaging for the opposition
This all gets very edgy...
25 working days are needed to organise an election
25 working days are needed to organise an election
An election on 14th Oct would need to be voted for by Commons no later than Friday *this week* 6th Sept
An election on 17th Oct could be voted for up until Wednesday 11 Sept (remembering Parliament is prorogued latest from 12 Sept, earliest 9 Oct)
An election on 17th Oct could be voted for up until Wednesday 11 Sept (remembering Parliament is prorogued latest from 12 Sept, earliest 9 Oct)
And as Johnson has spooked Parliament due to the prorogation, MPs are not about to just take his word for it that he would then not amend the election date - as @DianaJohnsonMP & @tony4rochdale have realised
So is it going to be possible for MPs to get their anti-No Deal law passed, *then* for Johnson to call an election and get the 2/3 majority for it, all by Friday?
Or is there a way Johnson could reassure the likes of Diana Johnson and Tony Lloyd to expedite the process?
Or is there a way Johnson could reassure the likes of Diana Johnson and Tony Lloyd to expedite the process?
Or - and this must be what Labour would be relishing - if this drags into the start of next week, then it messes up Johnson's election timetable, killing off the wrong but plausible argument that a Deal on 17 October is still possible
If Johnson has said he wants an election, and the Commons say "we need a couple more days, then we'll give you your 2/3 majority", what does Johnson do?
Have Johnson and Cummings thought all of this through?
/ends
Have Johnson and Cummings thought all of this through?
/ends
