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Official Yellowhammer document of some description is on its way says this MP, there’s “a room full of people” working on it... he says:
context from Yellowhammer document leaked to Sunday Times dated early August, that the Government suggested at the time was both old and had been leaked by a previous Cabinet minister...
My thread pointed out that it could only have been 2-3 weeks old:
My thread pointed out that it could only have been 2-3 weeks old:
We first heard of Yellowhammer when @politicalpics snapped Treasury minister John Glen carrying this document in Downing st a year ago:
The point is that many of the scenarios stem from assumed disruption on short straits Dover-Calais and Tunnel. Originally this “reasonable worst case scenario” was catastrophic assuming full French manual checks on everything and flow rate reduced to 1-2 in every 10 lorries...
Since then, mainly because of French preparedness of new facilities (NB originally assumed Belgians & Dutch would be prepared) reasonable worst case scenario on flow was upgraded to 3-5 in every 10 lorries getting through in April. and then 4-6 in July: bbc.com/news/business-…
Government’s claim in these documents, will I think be, that new UK-focussed preparedness measures (eg allocation of customs numbers, marketing campaign) could up that flow rate more, by minimising lorries with no paperwork, and so reduce some of the extreme possible consequences
NB meetings such as this today between France’s Europe minister and EU26 ambassadors are probably vital to these calculations too on the extent to which checks necessary between EU and a third country after a No Deal will be enforced in practice:
