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1/ Whatever one thinks of Bernie Sanders (or to a somewhat lesser extent Elizabeth Warren), in terms of them "being too radical" for the electorate, and thus, the need to go with someone like Biden, let me just offer some food for thought. make of it what you will...
2/ Biden's approach is based on two things: a) Obama nostalgia -- i.e., if we can just get back to the way things were b4 Trump all will be ok, w/ a few tweaks -- & b) faith in bipartisanship to get things done once Trump's out. In short, the GOP will come to its senses again...
3/ The first problem is -- and even putting aside whether the Obama years were as good as some claim -- the assumption that going back to that would work and allow for bipartisanship literally relies on ignoring what really happened for the 8 yrs of Obama's presidency...
4/ Has Biden forgotten what the GOP did? They resolved to block everything Obama tried to do. They stymied judicial appointments, and the only reason ACA got passed (a good but inadequate reform) was because for a brief moment the Dems controlled everything...
5/ It is unlikely they would after 2020 though, and unless Biden supports eliminating the filibuster (which sadly Bernie doesn't want to do either), it isn't clear why he thinks they would be any more bipartisan now. The right will obstruct now as then...
6/ Especially if Biden casts his presidency as a continuation of Obama, whose legacy they are committed to unraveling. This nostalgia for the back-slapping chummy (white male) bipartisanship of the Hart Office Building circa 1977 is absurd in today's environment...
7/ Those republicans are gone & have been replaced w/ Christian dominionists, nativists, & hard-right reactionaries who have no reason to work w/ Dems on anything, lest they be primaried by Trumpkins the next time out. So Biden's core assumptions literally contradict each other..
8/ Two additional assumptions of the Biden campaign are that a) the key to victory are those Trump to Obama voters in PA, MI & WI, and b) that the key to getting them is to focus on jobs & the economy, and c) Biden is best for that approach. Let's look at these one at a time...
9/ As for the Trump to Obama voters, first, I'm not convinced there were as many of these as are claimed. Saying you voted for Obama even when you didn't could be a way to say "I'm not racist, see..." just like claiming a black friend, and just as fictional...
10/ And the fact that certain precincts flipped isn't enough to prove it, bc that could suggest different voters in 2008 or 12, vs '16. If Trump-voting whites were unenthused in 08 or 12 they could have stayed home then, while Obama-voting whites unenthused in 16 did this time...
11/ But even if you allow for a significant number of such voters, let's be honest, knowing what it would take to get them back is not a straightforward task. I mean, think about it: these are people who would vote for Obama, then the guy who said Obama wasn't even an American...
12/ People who'd vote for Obama, get health care, and then vote 4 the guy who promised to get rid of it? I mean, how do u craft an appeal to people who are that fickle? Its impossible to know. And what works for 1 might fail for another...it doesn't present a clear path 4ward..
13/ These are the political equivalent of channel surfers, which means, if anything, presenting them w/a bold choice and clear beak w/the status quo seems more logical than caution. Which means, not Joe, frankly...so even if these are key, Joe may be least likely to get them...
14/ Keep in mind, Trump only won those states by 73k votes. And in WI he actually got fewer votes than Romney in 2012. The key was NOT Obama flippers, but Obama voters who stayed home in 2016...driving THOSE mostly base voters out is just as good as flipping Trump voters...
15/ And probably a better strategy. It's hard for someone who has made such a horrible mistake (as with Trump) to admit what they did, see the monster as a monster (or flop) and vote differently the next time. But its easier to convince former non-voters to get out this time...
16/ This is another lesson we learned fighting David Duke in LA in 1991. His voters from the '90 Senate race stuck w/ him in the Gov's race, but we drew the lines clearly w/ base voters (around the threat posed to multiracial democracy and pluralism) & base turnout skyrocketed..
17/ SO the question is, are those 73k the key, or are there other combinations of voters, possibly a lot more than 73k that the Dems could get? And then, might getting the former require a strategy that depresses or suppresses turnout by the latter?...A serious question...
18/ For instance, IF we assume those 73k who made the diff in 16 are more conservative on social issues, cultural issues, immigration, etc., & flipping them back requires moving right on those, might this stunt turnout among the base & defeat the purpose of the whole strategy?..
19/ I haven't heard any adequate answer to this obvious question from Biden or the Dems who seem to agree with the import of those 73k from 2016...
20/ Next, the assumption is that the way you GET those 73k is with jobs and economics. But that assumes economic anxiety is what drove them before, and all the research says that is false. To extent economics played in, it was inextricably linked to race/culture anxiety...
21/ In other words, "my town is dying, we don't have jobs...bc all the jobs are going to immigrants & they get the govt help too..." Fear of losing cultural dominance was far more important to their votes, so mere $$ promises won't suffice bc class fears were not the key driver..
22/ It's as if some Dems believe the part of "Build the Wall" his fans appreciate is the build part and not the wall part. As if this chant were only exciting folks for its potential employment opportunities, rather than for hateful and nativistic reasons...
23/ If Dems are going to get voters w/ an economic message they MUST link that to a clear argument that notes the way Trumpism relies on crafting a false & hateful narrative, blaming POC for problems they didn't create...scapegoating them. That stuff must be directly confronted..
24/ So far, candidates seem to dance around that, either talking about Trump's nativism OR class but not linking the two clearly enough...campaign must be about how Trumpism relies on politics of prejudice/scapegoating while ignoring real source of problems...
25/ As 4 the idea that Biden can best GET those voters w/an econ message, this is the least logical argument yet. First, he was VP under Obama & yet these folks voted for Trump. So if econ concerns were in any way implicated, they obviously felt those yrs weren’t good for them..
26/ So why would they assume Biden was going to fix the problem if he had been part of the administration that they feel “forgot about them?”...
27/ The pundits who think Joe is the one to get these voters buy into the idea that class is mostly about affect/style. In short: working class whites respond to “scrappy Joe from Scranton” who says things like “c’mon man!” more than actual bold ideas to help their lives...
28/ They think so little of working class people – whom they conflate w/whites, which is a whole ‘nother problem – as folks who just want someone they can have a beer with; thus Joe is better than Bernie (too Vermont/radical) or Warren (too wonky) or Harris (too black)…
29/ It’s ridiculous and classist. Are some folks that way? Of course…is there any evidence that those folks are the 73k in question? Not really. And is there any evidence folks like this are the key to Dem victory? Of course not...
30/ But even if they are, there’s no logical reason to think bold plans/visions from others wouldn’t work for them, especially since Biden is more tainted by the Obama legacy (for these people who clearly abandoned it in 16) than the others…
31/ So if you wanna make the case for Biden, go for it, but the electability argument isn’t really as strong as folks think…especially if it drives down enthusiasm among other key Dem voters, which it likely would...END
obviously I meant Obama to Trump voters...argh...
again, my bad, I meant Obama to Trump voters...we need an edit button on Twitter...
