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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The Reuters All Commodities Index from 1980...
And from 1914...
Or The Economist Commodity Index from 1850 (replete with same head and shoulders top).
Then ask yourself, could we be seeing something on the horizon that is the opposite of the accepted narrative. Maybe, just maybe, a massive deflation and massive rise in the $ is in our future. I clearly don't know, but I feel that the chart of the ADXY (Asia FX) suggests it...
and maybe its just the collapse of China with the CNY going to 10+? I don;t know but I know Ive never seen anything like it before.

The charts all tell a story beyond my comprehension.
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
It is coming...

The central banks have been flagging it for a while. From the BoE to the ECB, and now the IMF. The stable coin potentially solves many issues for the global system which is overly reliant on the dollar.
The stable coin suggested by Libra is clever because it is not a basket of currencies versus the dollar, but a basket that includes the dollar, this is incredible stable as the denominator is essentially money supply. This got the attention of the CB's
Now, Libra-style stable coins are far from perfect but they are potentially better for the digital world we live in. CB's like them because it doesn't exclude sovereignty and all the rights and benefits that conveys, but many are already discussing a sovereign crypto currency
Read 9 tweets
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
So, we are in a Fed easing cycle and ISM is below 50 and falling and YC inverted...

The bond market just tightened 50bps in the sell off.

The money markets are tightened to wipe out the coming 25bpc cut

And will tighten much more as a HUGE $600bn of liquidity is drained.
Oil prices tighten financial conditions.

The dollar is rising again, tightening conditions.

The US and China are engaged in economic warfare which equates to more tightening

There are increasing tariffs on the EU too.

Brexit.
Geopolitical tensions are extremely high.

Ford got downgraded to junk, risking the start of the Doom Loop.

And then we are going into seasonal pension fund selling for Baby Boomers (RMD).

It’s probably nothing, right? Q4 should be a breeze..
Read 3 tweets
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
What happens if the bond bears are wrong and the shock is not a sharp rise in yields, but instead a fall in yields so far yet unimagined. How about -4% in US 2 years?
And maybe, just maybe, that is consistent with a total and complete breakdown of the Commodity Index i.e. a deflationary breakdown?
And what happens if that was consistent with the breakdown in the EU banks?
Read 10 tweets

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mcm-ct.com
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1/
Let’s get this #MCM_CHARTSTORM started.

There are a lot of charts. Will be updating the thread into tomorrow, so if you want to see the whole thing it will not be complete till tomorrow - keep checking back.

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Graviscera
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tangential to my long-winded complaining about other hobbies I don't actually want to spend time on: i don't want to program videogames. i've complained about this countless times but as i said earlier, I lose interest "involuntarily" but also because it's 300 hours of work
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Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy
My take on index direction given the Nifty and the Midcap/smallcap index decoupling. A quick recap on what we are watching now, a unique scenario probably for the first time since 1996 where the indices are moving in opposite directions
Common sense and consensus says that the Nifty will fall and/or the midcap/smallcap will rise. I beg to differ. My logic is that this is a flight to quality. Hence, midcaps/smallcaps will get beaten further while the Nifty will continue to rise.
Have analysed the midcap index before, hence not repeating. Same analysis holds :
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