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Let’s game this out. The CW on impeachment is that the GOP stays united. That’s *probably* the most likely outcome. But Trump’s support c/d be like the Maginot Line, appears impenetrable but c/d collapse abruptly w/ a few brave/notable defections. 1/
For Trump’s support in the Senate to collapse it will take more than Romney, Collins, Gardner. It will take a couple Rs more to the right from dark red states. Think the 7 House Dem centrists. That puts pressure on more moderate Rs and the dam breaks. 2/
This will seem completely implausible until it happens. Trump’s senate support is held together by fear. Fear of Trump and the base. They hate him. But at a certain point that calculus c/d shift. Autocratic govts that stay in power by fear can collapse quickly. 3/
However, if Trump’s support looks like it will collapse I still doubt he his convicted in the Senate. I think Trump w/d do what he did when business after business collapsed. Abandon ship. He would declare bankruptcy and get out. 4/
So maybe there is a deal to be cut. Instead of Rs in the Senate voting him out (which they really don’t want to do); they press Trump to resign in exchange for pardons from Pence for him and his family. 5/
