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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
So @hugodixon had an interesting idea in this column:
independent.co.uk/voices/boris-j…

Could the Commons amend the Benn Act mandating someone other than Johnson to write the Article 50 Extension letter?

I added it to #BrexitDiagram to see its impact - now V25
Interim probabilities now:
Johnson goes to 17 Oct Summit: 40%
Johnson goes *but no power to send letter*: 17%
Someone else goes as PM: 42%
Johnson is heading for Court: 2%
This option - to keep Johnson in power but to control what he can do more closely - has the impact of keeping him on as PM longer, and lowering the chances a VONC is needed short term.

This option merits more debate and discussion.
And outcomes:
No Deal 31 Oct - 4% ↔️
Art 50 Revoked - 9% ⬆️
Brexit with Deal - 1% ⬆️
GE 2019 - 51% ⬇️
GE 2020 - 21% ↔️
#PeoplesVote - 14% ⬇️
And once more adding one additional route near the top of the diagram has resulted in half a dozen extra boxes lower down... one day I will have all options mapped!

And as ever all the files on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
At some point in the next month, and probably within the next fortnight, the problem of a Vote of No Confidence (VONC) is going to rear its head in UK politics

The problem for months has been: if you oust Johnson through a VONC, who could lead an alternative government?
So in @usherwood style, let's try to work this one through from a negotiation tactics perspective

First of all, what are the positions of the main protagonists?
LABOUR wants Corbyn to be the interim Prime Minister and does not want anyone else to be it. They *might* let the whole process fail as a result of this aim.

Beyond that Labour has said it wants a General Election, although now sounds more like it favours a second referendum.
Read 13 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Slightly updated #BrexitDiagram V24.2 this morning

Based on news from @peston that Labour MPs are now keener on a 2nd referendum than a General Election, and that Qs about how to sort out a caretaker government persist
Probabilities and trends:
No Deal 31 Oct - 4% ⬆️
Art 50 Revoked - 8% ⬆️
Brexit with Deal - -% ↔️
GE 2019 - 52% ⬇️⬇️
GE 2020 - 21% ⬇️
#PeoplesVote - 15% ⬆️⬆️
As ever .png, .pdf, .ods and .drawio XML on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends
Read 3 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Time for the next #BrexitDiagram - Series 3, Version 24 - 30th September

And it's one of those ones I dislike making - where all the options get more complex, and I have to add loads of arrows and boxes...
This one tries to cover the quandaries the opposition faces this week - to VONC or not to VONC. And then if VONC happens, what happens if Johnson refuses to go? It's all in here, as clearly as I can manage it (thanks @djm_black and @davidallengreen for the prompting)
Last week's rancid debate in Parliament (and Brussels reactions) lowers the chances of a Deal still further, and discussions with @NvOndarza and @paul0evans1 have led to to me adding a new end box - General Election in 2020
Read 5 tweets

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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
I wrote on Sunday about a scenario that hasn’t been much discussed: what happens if MPs block a no-deal Brexit & Johnson simply resigns as PM? independent.co.uk/voices/boris-j…
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Shamil Esq, GTTO, FBTP, GE, SR, EURF, BREMAIN
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The party of betrayal then. The party of betrayal now. Nothing has changed.

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Community Action on Prison Expansion
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Boris Johnson announced a renewed commitment to build 10,000 new prison places and expand police stop and search powers. This prison expansion plan is just as terrible and racist as he is! THE CASE AGAINST PRISON EXPANSION:

(THREAD)
Despite already locking up the most people in Europe, the government's Prison Estate Transformation Programme (PETP) plans to build 10,000 new prison spaces. The construction of HMP Wellingborough is already underway. We are building a campaign to stop it! bit.ly/2H8H0vM
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LizzieBee ⚫️💛🇪🇺💙🇬🇧🌈 #Remainiac #Revoker
@meejahoar
If we stay in the EU, we can eat Xmas food at Xmastime. If #ChaosBrexit happens, “This could leave British shoppers having to turn to the likes of turkey, stuffing and pigs-in-blankets as regular fresh food supplies run low.” H/t @MrSandy_P /52
If we stay in the EU, cancer patients can continue to have treatment with certain radioactive isotopes. These are as unstable as a Slytherin Tory cabinet minister and cannot be stockpiled. H/t @Dr_PhilippaW /53
If we stay in the EU, we can spend £100m between now and Hallowe’en – more than 2x what Proctor & Gable will spend in that time says @kacidama – on sexy shit such as the NHS, transport, education, jobs, housing and cool Hallowe’en costumes.
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Several interesting answers from @BorisJohnson in Sunday Times interview; little on the most important Q: how will he get us out of EU?
He is inclusive and not grudge-bearing; has learned from the collapse of his campaign last time thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/b…
He claims to have no more skeletons in his cupboard
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James Andrew Divers
@divers_james
This from a Vote Leave staffer got me thinking [THREAD]
It’s fascinating the praise & reward Cameron got for winning the AV Independence referendums /1
I don’t recall critiques from Tory Brexiters of Cameron behaviour during those votes /2
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