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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Slightly updated #BrexitDiagram V24.2 this morning

Based on news from @peston that Labour MPs are now keener on a 2nd referendum than a General Election, and that Qs about how to sort out a caretaker government persist
Probabilities and trends:
No Deal 31 Oct - 4% ⬆️
Art 50 Revoked - 8% ⬆️
Brexit with Deal - -% ↔️
GE 2019 - 52% ⬇️⬇️
GE 2020 - 21% ⬇️
#PeoplesVote - 15% ⬆️⬆️
As ever .png, .pdf, .ods and .drawio XML on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends
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More from @jonworth see all

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So @hugodixon had an interesting idea in this column:
independent.co.uk/voices/boris-j…

Could the Commons amend the Benn Act mandating someone other than Johnson to write the Article 50 Extension letter?

I added it to #BrexitDiagram to see its impact - now V25
Interim probabilities now:
Johnson goes to 17 Oct Summit: 40%
Johnson goes *but no power to send letter*: 17%
Someone else goes as PM: 42%
Johnson is heading for Court: 2%
This option - to keep Johnson in power but to control what he can do more closely - has the impact of keeping him on as PM longer, and lowering the chances a VONC is needed short term.

This option merits more debate and discussion.
Read 5 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
At some point in the next month, and probably within the next fortnight, the problem of a Vote of No Confidence (VONC) is going to rear its head in UK politics

The problem for months has been: if you oust Johnson through a VONC, who could lead an alternative government?
So in @usherwood style, let's try to work this one through from a negotiation tactics perspective

First of all, what are the positions of the main protagonists?
LABOUR wants Corbyn to be the interim Prime Minister and does not want anyone else to be it. They *might* let the whole process fail as a result of this aim.

Beyond that Labour has said it wants a General Election, although now sounds more like it favours a second referendum.
Read 13 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Time for the next #BrexitDiagram - Series 3, Version 24 - 30th September

And it's one of those ones I dislike making - where all the options get more complex, and I have to add loads of arrows and boxes...
This one tries to cover the quandaries the opposition faces this week - to VONC or not to VONC. And then if VONC happens, what happens if Johnson refuses to go? It's all in here, as clearly as I can manage it (thanks @djm_black and @davidallengreen for the prompting)
Last week's rancid debate in Parliament (and Brussels reactions) lowers the chances of a Deal still further, and discussions with @NvOndarza and @paul0evans1 have led to to me adding a new end box - General Election in 2020
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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⚢🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸🏳️‍⚧️
@SakuraNoSeirei
Good morning and welcome to yet another #Brexit thread

Have just woken up this morning to see that the Government in the Lords backed down at 01:30 and agreed to give the #BennBill time to go through all stages in the Lords

So I'm going to grab a coffee and try to find...

1/n
the business for today for both Houses

2/n
And indeed, today's the day that the Lords starts on the #BennBill

No firm commitment on timing just yet but I will hopefully be here to cover it live

3/n
lordsbusiness.parliament.uk
Read 125 tweets
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Daniel Cremin
@DanielCreminUK
My watch thread for #Peston. This week’s edition will have fireworks I expect. He opens by noting “The Dude” is getting the band back together. Putting the key drivers of Vote Leave & his GLA days alike into key positions & making clear he intends to be radical from the outset.👍
JRM explains, very crisply, the core rationale for the new PM in his cabinet selection: Appoint people who have talent and who are resolutely committed to leaving by 31/10. He adds that Javid & Truss who have the 2 key economic ministries backed Remain in 2016 but are Re-Leavers.
Rees-Mogg acknowledges the crucial importance of Dominic Cummings to the new government: “He is very capable at policy, he was instrumental in Michael Gove’s radical education reforms, and he’s also a very effective campaigner, as he showed during his leadership of Vote Leave.”
Read 18 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Labour amendment on its alternative plan defeated handsomely with far fewer votes than last month 323-240...

In theory Opposition now moves to public vote... but Corbyn’s retweet just after the defeat reiterated the “alternative deal”...
Starmer from earlier in the week - if Parliament rejects Labour deal [just happened and bigger defeat than last month], Opposition will deliver on promise to support public vote...

Labour source: “we now support Public Vote” - still push for a general election/ get the government to change its red lines, but “at the same time we will now back PV amendments”
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1.) News ~ Democrats Slipped POISON PILL into deal that will prevent the 55 miles of wall being built! DIRTY! thegatewaypundit.com/2019/02/democr…

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Read 75 tweets
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Chris Kendall 🇪🇺
@ottocrat
History will say she was the worst possible choice of leader to handle this most crucial of tasks. She must either call a referendum or a general election, and soon, it’s the only way out. She’s snookered. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
At this point I’m even wondering if Leadsom would have been better.
Thing is, at least we wouldn’t be in this interminable purgatory. At least EU leaders would know where we all stand. (OK we’d be standing in something even more unmentionable.)
Read 4 tweets

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