Thread by @jonworth

At some point in the next month, and probably within the next fortnight, the problem of a Vote of No Confidence (VONC) is going to rear its head in UK politics

The problem for months has been: if you oust Johnson through a VONC, who could lead an alternative government?

So in @usherwood style, let's try to work this one through from a negotiation tactics perspective

First of all, what are the positions of the main protagonists?

LABOUR wants Corbyn to be the interim Prime Minister and does not want anyone else to be it. They *might* let the whole process fail as a result of this aim.

Beyond that Labour has said it wants a General Election, although now sounds more like it favours a second referendum.

LIB DEMS don't want Corbyn as interim PM. Could live with a more neutral Labour person (Beckett, Harman?) or a moderate Tory (Clarke), or one of their own. *Might* let the whole process fail as a result of this aim.

Beyond that it's Revoke, People's Vote or - reluctantly - a GE

SNP don't care who the interim PM is, providing whoever it is asks for the Art 50 Extension and delays No Deal Brexit.

Beyond that they'd favour a GE (to oust the remaining Tory MPs in Scotland) and could live with a People's Vote or Revoke

The TORIES WHO LOST THE WHIP don't want Corbyn as interim PM. They could live with other pragmatists.

Beyond that we don't know what they'd really want - do they think there's a route back for them into the Tories? Or do they actually just want a Brexit Deal?

The first - and seemingly intractable - problem is then the question:

CORBYN as interim PM?

Labour in favour
SNP in the middle
Lib Dems, ex-Tories opposed

You could break this by introducing TIME into the mix

Some players get what they want NOW, others get it LATER

For example you go for an interim PM for a very limited time period (Lib Dems, ex-Tories get what they want), and then Labour gets what it wants after (a GE)

The problem with this TIME option is... what happens if you need too much time?

If Labour favours a People's Vote rather than a GE, your caretaker government needs to survive until summer 2020

You could also solve it by settling on an AIM - what do all the players want medium term?

The obvious option here would be that a People's Vote would be the compromise aim (possibly with a General Election thereafter) - and then the tactics to try to get there are less central

Another angle would be to REVERSE THE PROS AND CONS of a given option.

Corbyn at the moment thinks he wants his chance to be PM. It might be his only chance.

But at the moment the role is poisoned by Brexit - he cannot deliver the fair UK he wants.

Another route would be to COMBINE OPTIONS.

Here the promise might be:
- interim Prime Minister now
- People's Vote
- General Election

Here Corbyn would have the *chance* to shape Britain *after* Brexit was done or overturned

So please don't respond to stories about caretaker or interim Prime Minister solutions with "IT MUST BE CORBYN!" or "IT MUSTN'T BE CORBYN!"

By getting
- Time
- Aim
- Reversal of pros and cons
- Combined options
right, all players can win something here!

/ends