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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Time for the next #BrexitDiagram - Series 3, Version 24 - 30th September

And it's one of those ones I dislike making - where all the options get more complex, and I have to add loads of arrows and boxes...
This one tries to cover the quandaries the opposition faces this week - to VONC or not to VONC. And then if VONC happens, what happens if Johnson refuses to go? It's all in here, as clearly as I can manage it (thanks @djm_black and @davidallengreen for the prompting)
Last week's rancid debate in Parliament (and Brussels reactions) lowers the chances of a Deal still further, and discussions with @NvOndarza and @paul0evans1 have led to to me adding a new end box - General Election in 2020
Chances of a GE this year are now at 60%, next year at 27% - total 87%

#PeoplesVote is 7% (stable)

Article 50 revoked 5% (up a fraction)

No Deal 31 Oct 1% (stable)

Deal 31 Oct -% (stable)
And as ever all the files, high res images etc. are on my blog here: jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So @hugodixon had an interesting idea in this column:
independent.co.uk/voices/boris-j…

Could the Commons amend the Benn Act mandating someone other than Johnson to write the Article 50 Extension letter?

I added it to #BrexitDiagram to see its impact - now V25
Interim probabilities now:
Johnson goes to 17 Oct Summit: 40%
Johnson goes *but no power to send letter*: 17%
Someone else goes as PM: 42%
Johnson is heading for Court: 2%
This option - to keep Johnson in power but to control what he can do more closely - has the impact of keeping him on as PM longer, and lowering the chances a VONC is needed short term.

This option merits more debate and discussion.
Read 5 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
At some point in the next month, and probably within the next fortnight, the problem of a Vote of No Confidence (VONC) is going to rear its head in UK politics

The problem for months has been: if you oust Johnson through a VONC, who could lead an alternative government?
So in @usherwood style, let's try to work this one through from a negotiation tactics perspective

First of all, what are the positions of the main protagonists?
LABOUR wants Corbyn to be the interim Prime Minister and does not want anyone else to be it. They *might* let the whole process fail as a result of this aim.

Beyond that Labour has said it wants a General Election, although now sounds more like it favours a second referendum.
Read 13 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Slightly updated #BrexitDiagram V24.2 this morning

Based on news from @peston that Labour MPs are now keener on a 2nd referendum than a General Election, and that Qs about how to sort out a caretaker government persist
Probabilities and trends:
No Deal 31 Oct - 4% ⬆️
Art 50 Revoked - 8% ⬆️
Brexit with Deal - -% ↔️
GE 2019 - 52% ⬇️⬇️
GE 2020 - 21% ⬇️
#PeoplesVote - 15% ⬆️⬆️
As ever .png, .pdf, .ods and .drawio XML on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends
Read 3 tweets

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More feral College AU. This scene comes a week or so later.
A fine sheen of sweat breaks out over Connor’s skin as he sits naked in his professor’s lap, every inch of the man buried to the hilt inside him. Anderson’s hands hold him in place by the waist, and his forefinger rubs idly over his hipbone.
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For every like this tweet gets I will tweet about a weird electric vehicle
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Are you one of those people who's looked back on 2017 and convinced yourself that you haven't achieved anything? Worried about catching up with your mates who seem to have done much better?

Let me tell you a story about #time.

A thread 👇
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When I was finished with the soup, it was supposed to look something like this:

*photo credit: waiter foodies.
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